Macau’s economy could grow by 65% in 2023, Fitch Ratings says

The rating agency believes the rebound will be aided by a “sustained” recovery in gaming tourism in the last quarter.

Macau.- Analysts at Fitch Ratings have predicted Macau’s economy could rebound as much as 65 per cent in 2023. This projection surpasses the institution’s previous estimate made in December 2022 by 19 percentage points. The steady recovery of gaming tourism is expected to make a major contribution. In 2022, Macau’s economy contracted by 26.8 per cent. 

Macau’s GGR for September was down 13.2 per cent month-on-month from MOP17.21bn (US$2.13bn) to MOP14.94bn (US$1.85bn). However, GGRT was up 404.2 per cent year-on-year. Cumulatively, Macau’s GGR for the first nine months of 2023 was MOP128.95bn, up 305.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2022.

Fitch rates Macau’s status as a sovereign issuer of debt at AA/Stable based on Macau’s robust public and external finances and prudent fiscal management. Analysts said that despite the territory being on track to record a budget deficit for the fourth consecutive year, it remains the only entity in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio without outstanding government debt, which puts it well below the AA median of 44.7 per cent of GDP.

Fitch Ratings predicted that Macau’s current account surplus will increase to 25.6 per cent of GDP by 2023. It said Macau will continue to have a high net external creditor position of 246 per cent of GDP.