Macau’s GGR likely to be low in September

A new note from brokerage Bernstein indicates that gaming gross revenue (GGR) in Macau is likely to be low in September.

Macau.- Bernstein has lowered its gaming gross revenue (GGR) for Macau in September. While it had initially predicted that GGR would increase 7% year-on-year, the brokerage is now saying that it estimates a decrease of 1% to a 1% rise.

Bernstein said that higher-end gaming will be modest in the days before the Golden Week holiday, which starts on October 1 and ends on the third day of the month. The brokerage added that it will also be modest during those days.

Despite the estimations, hotel bookings during the holiday are solid. However, Bernstein says that they’re likely players that spend less money. That prediction lowers September’s estimate to a fall of 1% to a rise of that same number.

Previous estimate

Last week, Bernstein said that GGR was likely to be up between 4% and 7% in September. In a memo, analysts explained year-on-year comparisons include a period when venues closed due to Typhoon Mangkhut in September 2018.

“Our channel checks indicate that Macau’s GGR for September 1-15 was estimated to be approximately €1.3 billion. That’s a month-to-date average daily rate of approximately €86.9 million,” wrote analysts Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhu.

Brokerage Nomura also forecasted “low single-digit” GGR growth in Macau. “We estimate GGR should settle around €2.47 billion to €2.58 billion,” wrote Nomura’s Harry Curtis, Daniel Adam and Brian Dobson.

“The roughly 2% to 3% Macau GGR growth estimate for September implied by our estimate would mean more than 1,000 basis points of sequential acceleration versus last month’s decline, given much easier one-year growth comparisons for the balance of the current year.”