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Casino revenue likely to decline in Q4 in Macau

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November and December would both register a 9% decline year-on-year.

Morgan Stanley has revealed in a new memo that casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau is likely to be down every month in Q4.

Macau.- The downward revenue trend in Macau is expected to continue throughout the rest of the year. Morgan Stanley said in a Sunday memo that casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) is likely to be down every month of Q4 in Macau.

Analysts Praven Choudhary, Thomas Allen and Gareth Leung said that October GGR would be 6% down year-on-year. November and December would both register a 9% decline year-on-year, ending Q4 on a bad note.

“We expect Q4 revenue growth for both mass and VIP to decelerate compared to the first nine months in Macau. Driven by high [2018] base, lower [tally of] overnight visitors and general economic slowdown,” said the analysts.

Moreover, the Morgan Stanley analysts said that they expect third-quarter property EBITDA to be down 1%. “Also weaker than seasonality of an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter,” they said.

Macau’s gaming sector experiences healthy development

Macau’s government has recently posted a report in which it studied the first three years of the implementation of Macau SAR Five-Year Development Plan. Between 2016 and 2018, Macau’s gaming sector experienced healthy development and even surpassed some expectations.

The report says that the annual casino game table growth rate totalled 2.8% between 2013 and 2018, which is under the government’s 3% rate, Macau Business detailed. The percentage from non-gaming revenue dropped from 10.7% in 2016 to 9.9% in 2018. This is also higher than the 9% rate estimated for 2020.

Macau also expected local residents to hold 85% of mid-level or higher management positions. The number surpassed the government’s expectations in 2018, as it rose to 88.1%.

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