Macau likely to start Q4 on a bad note

Analysts estimate that gaming gross revenue (GGR) in Macau will be down at least 3% year-on-year in October.

Macau.- Despite posting a slight increase in gaming gross revenue in September, Macau is likely to register a 3% decrease in October. The Chinese gambling hub needs to experience an impressive fourth quarter (Q4) in order to post positive results at the end of 2019.

JP Morgan Securities said that October’s GGR is likely to decline 3%. GGR would also fall 6% to 8% in November and December. Thus, for the fourth quarter, GGR would fall 6% year-on-year, and Macau would post an overall negative performance in 2019.

“Meanwhile there’s a good possibility that 2019 marks a cyclical bottom, and that demand can rebound into 2020 on easy comps, better liquidity in China, and alleviation of 2019 headwinds (namely VIP smoking ban, junket noise, Hong Kong social unrest, capital control, among others),” said analysts DS Kim, Jeremy An and Derek Choi, according to GGRAsia.

Bernstein’s estimations

Sanford Bernstein also released a note detailing financial activity in Macau. Analysts Vitaly Umansky, Eunice Lee and Kelsey Zhu said that preliminary estimations indicate a year-on-year decline of 3% to 6% in October.

“With the Golden week leading off the month, the trend so far is not looking too optimistic based on our recent conversations with industry participants in Macau. While hotel bookings are solid, we expect the quality of the customers will be lower this year. Room comps will be high during the period but likely go to an average lower spend customer than in 2018. Consequently, higher-end play will likely remain tepid during Golden Week and during the whole of October,” they added.

September’s results

Casinos in the Chinese territory registered a 0.6% year-on-year increase during last month’s operations to €2.5 billion. The 0.6% increase was a figure that analysts expected.

The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported that gaming gross revenue (GGR) was €2.5 billion. This is an increase from the €2.4 billion registered during the same period last year. Moreover, the results from September indicate that year-to-date GGR was €24.9 billion, a 1.7% decline year-on-year.