Seaport Research Partners predicts rise in Macau casino EBITDA
Analysts have predicted EBITDA could be up 9 per cent this year.
Macau.- Seaport Research Partners has forecast that Macau’s casino property earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) could rise by nine 9 per cent year-on-year to US$8.4bn in 2025. Analyst Vitaly Umansky said EBITDA could hit US$9.9bn by 2027.
Analysts have estimated that gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2025 could rise up to 7 per cent in year-on-year terms in 2025 and over the next several years, which should lead to EBITDA growth. Umansky said Macau casino EBITDA margins decreased from 29.5 per cent in 2019 to 28 per cent in 2024 mainly due to increased player reinvestment and higher operating costs following the post-Covid reopening in early 2023.
He added that EBITDA could improve to 28.5 per cent this year and 29 per cent in 2026. he said total property EBITDA could increase from US$7.7bn in 2024 to US$8.4bn in 2025 as revenue growth is expected to exceed cost increases and player reinvestment should remain fairly consistent as a percentage of GGR.
CreditSights expects Macau to surpass 2025 GGR target
CreditSights, a division of the Fitch Group, has predicted that Macau GGR will reach around MOP245bn (US$30.5bn) this year. That would beat the government’s forecast of MOP240bn and would represent 84 per cent of 2019 levels and an 8 per cent rise year-over-year.
Analysts Nicholas Chen, David Bussey and Zerlina Zeng predicted that hotel occupancy could improve this year due to the completion of casino renovations and room conversions. They expect visitor numbers to reach about 94 per cent of the levels seen in 2019 and GGR per visitor to rise by 2 per cent year-on-year from MOP6,493 to MOP6,606.
Analysts pointed out that Macau’s casino operators could face challenges due to China’s slowing economic growth and weak domestic spending. However, they said Macau’s gaming sector could benefit from the easing of travel restrictions, more cities being added to the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS), ongoing renovations and upgrades to casinos, improvements in room and entertainment options and a boost in consumer confidence from recent measures by Chinese authorities.
GGR in 2024 was MOP226.78bn (US$28.39bn), up 23.8 per cent year-on-year. However, the figure was down 22.45 per cent compared to 2019 levels, when GGR reached MOP292.45bn (US$36.7bn). Visitor numbers reached 34.9 million.
