Macau GGR to surpass 2023 target, analysts say
Macau’s gross gaming revenue is expected to exceed the MOP130bn target thanks to a better-than-expected recovery.
Macau.- The Macau Economic Association has predicted that GGR for 2023 could surpass the government’s MOP130bn target for 2023. GGR reached MOP46.36bn (US$5.75bn) in the first four months of the year, approximately 38 per cent of the target and half of pre-pandemic levels.
Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng’s target of MOP130bn (US$16bn) compares to GGR of MOP42.2bn last year.
The Macau Economic Association emphasised the positive trajectory of various indicators as economic and social activities return to normalcy after the pandemic. In April, GGR was up 15.6 per cent month-on-month from MOP12.73bn to MOP14.72bn (US$1.83bn). The figure was up 449.9 per cent when compared to last year, and April was the best month since January 2020, before the Covid-19 pandemic began.
However, the association cautioned that the economic recovery is uneven, with small and medium-sized enterprises in non-tourism sectors yet to reap the benefits of increased visitor numbers. Several factors continue to impact Macau’s economic resurgence, including a complex external environment, weak consumer demand, and cautious investment markets. The potential effects of Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments on the global economy pose another challenge.
Macau GGR for first 14 days of May estimated at US$990m
Analysts at JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) have reported that Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first two weeks of May is estimated at MOP8bn (US$990m), representing a daily run-rate of MOP570m.
Analyst DS Kim said predicted that the strong performance represents a higher baseline demand level rather than a temporary boost. Kim highlighted that even during the traditionally slower week following the Labour Day holiday, GGR remained at a daily rate of MOP500m, surpassing the MOP400m+ rates observed before the holiday.
The analyst noted that mass demand has reached around 80 to 85 per cent of pre-pandemic levels, while VIP demand has reached a recovery of approximately 25 to 30 per cent. These figures represent a significant improvement compared to the recovery rates of 65 per cent+ and 15 per cent+ in the first quarter of 2023. The recovery in VIP GGR also suggests a doubling of direct VIP revenue compared to pre-Covid-19 levels.