Macau casinos: CICC forecasts 5% growth for GGR in Q4

Analysts also predict a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4 per cent.

Macau.- China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities (CICC) has projected that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the fourth quarter of the year will rise 5 per cent in year-on-year terms and 4 per cent compared to the third quarter.

Analysts Shengyong Goh, Jiayu Wang and Liwei Hou said the growth would be driven by the appreciation of the renminbi against the Hong Kong dollar, which is expected to attract more visitors and increase their spending capacity. They noted that the final quarter benefited from a strong October Golden Week, the seven-day holiday period which saw 916,000 visitors in the city. Consumer confidence is also projected to strengthen, supported by a series of stimulus policies introduced by the Chinese government.

The analysts mentioned that non-gaming events might have contributed to boosting the number of visitors. Operators are hosting non-gaming events, such as concerts, residency shows, sports events, and art exhibitions, more frequently. In the current quarter, analysts expect concerts from Andy Lau and Dao Lang, as well as UFC Fight Night, to be particularly attractive.

Analysts at JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) have estimated that Macau’s GGR for the first 20 days of October was MOP14.6bn (US$1.8bn). The estimated GGR run rate was MOP$730m (US$91.1m) a day.

Macau GGR to reach US$28.17bn in 2024, analysts say

According to CICC, Macau’s GGR will reach US$28.17bn in 2024 and US$30.30bn in 2025, up 24 and 8 per cent respectively in year-on-year terms. Analysts estimated that Macau’s industry-adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) will reach US$8.12bn in 2024 and US$9.15bn in 2025.

In September, GGR was MOP17.25bn (US$2.15bn). The figure was up 15.5 per cent year-on-year but down 12.7 per cent compared to the previous month. It was the lowest monthly tally of the year and was down by 21.8 per cent compared to September 2019, partly due to super typhoon Yagi. Cumulatively, Macau’s GGR for the first nine months of 2024 was MOP169.3bn (US$21bn), up 31.3 per cent year-on-year but below the same period in 2019 (US$27.4bn).

According to preliminary data, Macau received 25.94 million tourists in the first nine months of this year. That’s a rise of 30.2 per cent year-on-year and represents 85.9 per cent of the pre-Covid volume in 2019. The count for international tourists reached nearly 1.68 million, up 95.2 per cent year-on-year rise but only 70.8 per cent of the figure from 2019. In January, the director of the MGTO, Maria Helena de Senna Fernandes, stated that the city aimed to attract around 3 million foreign visitors this year.