The Dutch gaming regulator said that a new report shows channelisation is unlikely to meet the target of 80 per cent by 2024.
The Netherlands.- The Dutch regulator, Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), has said The Netherlands may miss its projected channelisation rate for 2024.
Based on a report from H2 Gambling Capital, KSA said channelisation to the regulated market, which goes live this year, will be 70 per cent rather than the 80 per cent it had projected.
H2 predicts that three years after this year’s launch of legal online gaming the combined licensed and unlicensed market will be worth €1.08bn including bonuses.
It predicts revenue of €757m for the legal market in 2024, roughly 70 per cent of the entire gaming market.
It said that tax rates were an obstacle for channelisation, since the rate for online gambling is to be set at 29 per cent. That compares to 18 per cent in Sweden and 20 per cent in Denmark.
The KSA said: “Providers will try to (partly) pass on the gambling tax to the players. This makes the legal range of games less attractive.
“Currently, illegal providers pay no gambling tax in the Netherlands. This gives price-conscious players an incentive to play with an illegal provider.”
However, KSA noted that there were differences in projections between the H2 Gambling Capital report and a report by Regulus Partners, and that channelisation in each vertical could be influenced by different factors.
It said: “There is (and will remain) uncertainty about the exact figures, especially for the illegal part of the market.”