Macau casino EBITDA to reach 65% of 2019 levels in Q2, analysts say

Second-quarter EBITDA for the industry is expected to reach US$1.59bn.
Second-quarter EBITDA for the industry is expected to reach US$1.59bn.

Citigroup forecasts a 35 per cent rise from the last quarter.

Macau.- Citigroup analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheung have forecast casino earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of US$1.59bn for Q2. That be 65 per cent of 2019 levels and a 35 per cent rise compared to the previous quarter

In a memo issued on Monday (July 10), Choi and Cheung highlighted the positive momentum in Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) during the second quarter of 2023. They said a steady recovery in EBITDA was driven by strong performance in the premium mass segment, which accounted for approximately 90 per cent of the GGR recovery.

Second quarter GGR was MOP45.49bn (US$5.65bn), a 31.3 per cent rise from the first quarter of 2023 and 62 per cent of the GGR achieved in the same period in 2019.

Citigroup analysts also observed that visitors in Macau are displaying higher spending than before the Covid-19 pandemic, reflecting a trend seen in luxury consumption globally. They predicted that MGM China Holdings would be the first casino operator in Macau to surpass pre-pandemic EBITDA levels.

However, the brokerage expressed caution regarding SJM Holdings, foreseeing a slower EBITDA recovery for the company due to market share pressure faced by its satellite and self-operating casinos.

JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd  has stated that second-quarter EBITDA for the industry is likely to reach US$1.7bn, a 47 per cent increase compared to the first three months of the year. 

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