Analysts increase Q1 earnings forecasts for Macau casino operators

Accumulated GGR for the first three months of the year has reached MOP34.64bn (US$4.29bn).

04/12/23

JP Morgan and CBRE Securities have upped their forecasts for Sands China, MGM China and Wynn Macau.

Macau.- Two brokerages have raised their forecasts for Macau casino operators‘ first-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). John DeCree and Max Marsh of CBRE Securities have upped their estimate for Sands China, MGM China and Wynn Macau by 11.6 per cent to US$480.9m.

In a separate note, JP Morgan Securities increased its first-quarter net revenue, property-level EBITDA and EBITDA margin forecasts for MGM China Holdings to US$407m, US$63m, and 15.5 per cent respectively, up from US$321m, US$40m, and 12.5 per cent previously.

Non-gaming revenues have also shown similar strength. JP Morgan estimated that MGM China’s second-quarter revenue, EBITDA, and margins would be US$452m, US$72m and 15.9 per cent, based on a slight improvement in mass gross gaming revenue to 70 per cent of 2019 levels.

Analysts expect mass GGR to recover to 85 per cent of 2019 levels in the fourth-quarter of 2023 and 95 per cent in 2024. Macau’s first-quarter gross gaming revenue rose 94.9 per cent on year-on-year terms to US$4.28bn, according to the Macau government.

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