AGA: gaming CEOs positive on current business conditions, neutral on future outlook

Many expect improving balance sheets and continued capital investment against a backdrop of slowing revenue growth.

Press release.- Gaming executives remain upbeat about current business conditions with a neutral outlook on future conditions, according to the American Gaming Association’s (AGA) Gaming Industry Outlook presented in partnership with Fitch Ratings.

The overwhelming majority of gaming executives surveyed view the current business situation as good (42 per cent) or satisfactory (55 per cent), moderating from Q1 when 62 per cent reported good conditions and 35 per cent described them as satisfactory. When asked about future business conditions, more than half expect the next three to six months to be about the same (58 per cent), with the remainder almost evenly split between those who anticipate better or worse conditions (3 per cent net positive).

AGA President and CEO Bill Miller, said: “The significant expansion and record demand for legal, regulated gaming in the post-pandemic era have allowed our members to consistently invest in our product and people to deliver innovative entertainment options for American adults.

“Gaming CEOs remain focused on delivering world-class entertainment options against the backdrop of broader economic uncertainty.”

Current condition index

The Current Conditions Index measured 100.6, reflecting a slight growth of 0.6 per cent in casino gaming-related economic activity in Q3 2023 relative to Q2 2023. Because gaming revenue and employee wages are adjusted for inflation, the Current Conditions Index was tempered by persistently high inflation through Q3 2023.

Future Conditions Index

The Future Conditions Index stands at 99.6, indicating that annualized industry economic activity over the next six months is expected to decrease slightly. This outlook reflects Oxford Economics’ forecast that the U.S. economy will experience a mild recession beginning in Q4 2023. However, even with an anticipated slowdown in consumer spending, consumer survey results continue to indicate that more than one-third of adults expect to visit a casino during the next 12 months, consistent with prior quarter results. 

Gaming Executive Panel

Executive views on future financial conditions are mixed. On balance, respondents expect that their overall balance sheet health will improve (26 per cent net positive) over the next three to six months and that their pace of capital spending will increase (24 per cent net positive). However, on the net, they expect the pace of revenue growth to decrease (13 per cent net negative responses) and describe access to credit as somewhat restrictive.

At the sector level, gaming supplier CEOs broadly expect the pace of unit sales to increase through the end of the year while many operator CEOs plan to increase capital investments in their food and beverage offerings.

• Casino operators expect gaming units in operation to increase (11 per cent net positive), while 67 per cent expect greater than normal investments in food and beverage and 33 per cent expect greater than normal capital spending on gaming machines.
• Gaming equipment manufacturers expect units for new or expansion use to increase (44 per cent net positive), with an equal share expecting sales of gaming units for replacement use to increase.

When asked about top business challenges, 58 per cent of executives cited inflation or interest rate concerns as factors limiting operations, followed by overall uncertainty of the economic environment (55 per cent).

About the Outlook

The AGA Gaming Industry Outlook is presented in partnership with Fitch Ratings and prepared biannually by Oxford Economics. It provides a timely measure of recent industry growth and future expectations. The Q3 2023 survey was conducted between August 28 – September 6, 2023. A total of 33 executives responded, including executives at the major international and domestic gaming companies, tribal gaming operators, single-unit casino operators, major gaming equipment suppliers, and major iGaming and/or sports betting operators.

See also: AGA: US commercial gaming revenue reaches $5.39bn in July