Gaming in Macau: GGR to reach US$30.2bn in 2025, analysts say
Analysts at Citigroup predict GGR could exceed the government’s forecast.
Macau.- Citigroup has predicted that gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau will reach MOP242.5bn (US$30.2bn) in 2024, surpassing the local government’s forecast by 1 per cent. The total would be 83 per cent of the 2019 level. As for 2026, analysts said GGR could reach MOP261.9bn or 90 per cent of the 2019 level.
Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau attributed the potential growth to increased visitor numbers, the expanded use of smart gaming tables, which allow operators to better assess player value and optimise marketing, and the rising popularity of side bets in baccarat games. They also noted that the government has a history of underestimating GGR.
New suite accommodations are also expected to contribute. Upcoming expansions include 1,500 suites at Sands China’s Londoner Grand, 100 suites at Galaxy Entertainment Groups’ Capella and 70 units at MGM China’s two properties in Macau. Analysts suggested that larger, premium accommodations will attract higher-value players, increasing their gaming activity.
The number of visitors to the city is also expected to grow due to the inclusion of 10 additional Chinese cities in the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS), boosting Macau’s tourist arrivals to approximately 35.7 million in 2025.
See also: Macau CE says casino revenue target for 2025 is “definitely achievable”
GGR market share for 2025
Analysts anticipated that Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment will continue to lead in GGR share among the city’s six operators. They see Sands holding 25.4 per cent; Galaxy Entertainment 19.2 per cent; MGM China 15.3 per cent; Melco Resorts & Entertainment 14.3 per cent; SJM Holdings 13.1 per cent; and Wynn Macau 12.7 per cent.
Citigroup projected that the industry’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) will reach nearly US$8.03bn in 2024, with a growth of approximately 13 per cent year-on-year to US$9.05bn in 2025. That’s about 94 per cent of 2019 levels. The financial institution mentioned the potential for the Macau gaming industry to become increasingly “dividend-paying” in the upcoming year.
