Credit Suisse warns China visa crackdown risks 20% of Macau GGR

Credit Suisse predicts that restrictions on visas for Chinese nationals will hurt Macau’s gross gaming revenue.

Macau.- Gross gaming revenue in Macau may be hit by up to 20 per cent if China continues to restrict visa approval for frequent gamblers. A report by Credit Suisse picked on findings that 90,000 people had been discouraged from visiting Macau from China due to the clampdown.

The Ministry of Public Security has announced that it will seek to reduce the number of travellers who leave China to gamble, especially frequent travellers. According to Credit Suisse, the main impact will be on the VIP and premium mass segments.

It estimates that the curbs will hit 30 per cent of the premium mass and VIP direct business, which is equivalent to 20 per cent of the industry total. Analysts estimate that by 2024, the market is expected to be made up of 20 per cent from direct VIP, 40 per cent from premium mass and 40 per cent from base mass.

The analysts also noted that recent visa rejections have likely contributed to Macau’s slow recovery, which has seen monthly GGR reach 18-month and 19-month lows in March and April.

Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd reported Monday that the latest checks indicate that “frequent gamblers to Macau have seen visa issuance denied by China immigration offices.”

Bernstein said in the note: “As China Immigration Administration just reiterated strict Covid-19 border policy and restrictions on non-essential travel, we expect near-term visitation (to Macau) and (casino) revenue may remain constrained.”

See also: Macau’s top court rules on junket debts