CLSA expects Macau GGR to reach US$28.6bn this year

CLSA has lowered its forecast by 3 per cent.

Macau.- Investment group CLSA has adjusted its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for Macau downwards by 3 per cent to MOP232.7bn (US$28.6bn). That figure would be a rise of 27 per cent year-on-year. For 2025, it forecasts MOP241.7bn, which would be a rise of 3.9 per cent from 2024.

The adjustments were made in response to weaker GGR in June, a projected decrease in inbound visitors, and China’s crackdown on illegal money exchange. Analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan said the adjustments were based on the city’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported second-quarter 2024 GGR figures, which were 1.6 per cent lower than for the first quarter of 2024.

CLSA’s analysts expect the sector’s EBITDA margin to contract by 1.2 percentage points to 30.3 per cent for the second quarter of 2024.

See also: Morgan Stanley says money exchange crackdown could impact Macau casino EBITDA

In June, GGR was MOP17.69bn (US$2.20bn), up 16.4 per cent year-on-year but down 12.4 per cent month-on-month. This was the lowest figure recorded so far in the year and analysts speculated that this could set the benchmark for Macau’s monthly GGR for the rest of 2024.

Cumulatively, Macau’s GGR for the half of 2024 was MOP113.8bn (US$14.20bn), up 41.9 per cent year-on-year but 23.9 per cent below the same period in 2019.