Analysts lower Macau GGR predictions again

Morgan Stanley now predicts that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will only reach 33 per cent of pre-pandemic levels this year.

Macau.- Morgan Stanley has again lowered its forecast for Macau’s GGR for 2021  due to the zero-tolerance policy towards Covid-19 in both mainland China and Macau. According to analysts, Macau’s GGR will reach MOP96.77bn (US$12bn), 33 per cent of that seen in 2019. 

That figure would still be up 60 per cent when compared to the MOP60.44bn achieved in 2020, which bore the brunt of the pandemic’s impact.

Morgan Stanley now predicts that a recovery to pre-pandemic levels may now take until 2023 due to the “lower efficacy for certain vaccination” and the effect of the Delta variant. 

For 2021, analysts expect market-wide, corporate EBITDA to be US$1.18bn, down from a previous prediction of US$2.89bn. In 2019, Macau corporate EBITDA was nearly US$9.25 bn. 

Analysts predict that Macau will see only 25 per cent of the daily visitor arrivals recorded in 2019 as it is still unknown when the city would remove its travel restrictions for people coming from places beyond mainland China.

Analysts at Fitch Ratings Inc have predicted Macau’s GGR will be down 65 per cent from 2019 levels, closing close to MOP102.4bn this year.

Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd has recently predicted that won’t happen before 2022. It added: “Longer term, Individual Visit Scheme eVisa, group visa restart, and Hong Kong travel resumption will be necessary to drive gross gaming revenue (GGR) upwards.”

Macau to revise 2021 GGR forecast

Lei Wai Nong, Macau’s secretary for economy and finance has said that Macau is revising GGR forecasts for the year for the city’s revised budget, which will be submitted to the Legislative Assembly.

The announcement was made after the city recorded GGR or MOP$4.44bn (US$554.5m) for August, down 47.7 per cent month-on-month and the lowest monthly GGR figure since September 2020.