Nomura revisits its Macanese GGR forecast

According to brokerage Instinet LLC, new investments in China have seen its initial GGR forecast for 2019 turning at least 1% up.

Macau.- Forecasts for the Macanese 2019 financial year aren’t so encouraging as analysts see growth slowing down and upward trends breaking up. However, Japanese Nomura’s brokerage Instinet LLC stated that its previous GGR estimate has gone at least 1% up thanks to new investment in the country, instead of going up to 3% down.

“Considering the fourth-quarter and year-to-date GGR, we believe that 2019 growth will settle in a range of 1% to 4%. One percent is consensus, but 4% growth is possible if GGR volumes follow the recovery in key China economic indicators,” analysts Harry Curtis, Daniel Adam and Brian Dobson said.

“With green shoots now sprouting in China, VIP volumes could be flattish this year,” Instinet explained, with news which would’ve been bad if it weren’t for the previous VIP market 10% shrink forecast.

“If Beijing continues to foster credit and liquidity growth through 2019, then GGR growth could approach mid-single digits,” the analysts wrote. “The governing factor might be additional regulatory efforts at controlling currency flight, but, so far, players seem to find creative ways to access capital.”