Macau GGR could be lower than expected

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Brokerage Bernstein said in a new research note that GGR could be weaker than expected this month.

Macau.- Brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd has revised its March forecast for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) and argued that the figures are on track to post growth of 9 to 12 per cent, lower than the original estimations due to weaker-than-expected month-to-date results.

Analysts Vitaly Umansky, Zhen Gong and Cathy Huang said: “Assuming a GGR average daily rate of MOP750 million [US$92.9 million] to MOP790 million for the remaining days of the month, we estimate March GGR to a range of MOP23.1 billion and MOP23.9 billion, an estimated year-on-year increase in March of 9 per cent to 12 per cent, revised down from prior estimate.”

Last week, the team had said that GGR in the city would rise by 12 to 15 per cent year-on-year for March’s full operations. The analysts said that GGR growth could surprise on the upside in March. “Several junket spring dinners will be held later this month which should increase GGR run rate above the current month-to-date trend,” it added.

Moreover, brokerage Nomura said that by segment, “month to date we estimate that: average daily VIP volume is down approximately 10 per cent to 15 per cent versus the average in February; VIP hold percentage is approximately 2.8 percent, below the expected “normal” hold rate of approximately 2.85 per cent; and mass GGR/day is tracking down approximately 10 per cent sequentially.”