Bernstein cuts Macau GGR forecast for July

The brokerage Bernstein Research has lowered its forecast for July’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) due to lower VIP hold.

Macau.- Bernstein Research has changed its forecast for July’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for Macau. The brokerage said that it changed this month’s figures due to an expected lower VIP hold.

Bernstein said that according to channel checks, gross gaming revenue from July 14 to 21 was €1.8 billion. The average daily rate was €89.6 million. Month-to-date ADR has increased 2% from June and 1% down from the same month last year.

“VIP volume is estimated to be down mid-single digits m/m with the hold rate towards the lower end of the normalised range. Mass GGR is estimated to be up mid-single digits percentage month to month.”

The brokerage then lowered its estimate for GGR growth from flat to 2% in July, which is down from 6% to 8%. “One area of potential high-end GGR stabilization and renewed strength may come from a recovering credit cycle in China which may support VIP recovery in the second half of the year.”

Previous GGR estimate

According to Bernstein’s note, about €90.7 million were registered every day on average. It said that the rate was 3% higher than the one in June, but almost the same as July 2018. It also added that the VIP and mass markets are estimated to be down: “VIP volume is estimated to be down mid-single digits month-on-month, with [the] hold rate towards the lower end of the normalised range. Mass GGR is likely to be up mid-single digits per cent month-on-month.”

Based on the estimate for the first two weeks, Sanford C. Bernstein said forecasts that GGR in Macau in July will be between 8% and 11% higher than June. Year-on-year the numbers are between 2% and 4%.