Macau government lowers GGR forecast for 2025
The government now expects GGR for 2025 to reach MOP228bn (US$ 28.3bn).
Macau.- The Macau government has lowered its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for this year by 5 per cent, from MOP240bn (US$ 29.8bn) to MOP 228bn (US$ 28.3bn). André Cheong Weng Chon, the city’s secretary for administration and justice, made the announcement after the Executive Council reviewed the government’s amended budget plan for 2025.
Ho In Mui, the deputy director of the financial services bureau, said the revised budget was based on consideration of many factors, including global economic uncertainties, changes in visitor spending habits and figures for the year to date. The revised budget plan for 2025 will be presented to the city’s Legislative Assembly for discussion.
From January to April this year, Macau saw average gaming revenue of MOP19bn per month, which is lower than the MOP20bn the government had predicted. She said: “After observing our fiscal income status in the first half of this year, we now assume that if we are reaching MOP19bn in GGR a month, or MOP228bn for the full year, that would make a balanced budget for the Macau SAR.”
In May, GGR was MOP21.19bn (US$2.62bn). That’s an increase of 1.7 per cent from May 2024 and 12.4 month-on-month. It was the city’s best monthly performance post-Covid-19. Cumulatively, Macau’s GGR for the first five months of 2025 was MOP97.7bn (US$12.1bn), up 1.7 per cent year-on-year. The figure was 77 per cent of the same period of 2019 (MOP125.6bn) (US$5.5bn).
In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its growth forecast for Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) for this year from 7.3 per cent to 3.6 per cent. For 2026, the IMF has adjusted its projection to 3.5 per cent. In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF also cut its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.5 points to 2.8 per cent.
Seaport Research Partners predicts dip in Macau GGR for June
Seaport Research Partners forecast that Macau’s GGR could fall by 13.7 per cent sequentially in June. That would be slightly worse than the average historical monthly decline. Analysts expect the figure to be up by 3.4 per cent year-on-year but note that the UEFA Euro Cup could have had a negative impact on GGR during June last year.
Vitaly Umansky said that although GGR has seen improvements in previous months, it relies on a rebound in consumer confidence in China and the base mass segment. Umansky noted that there will be several large concerts in June and the first two days of the month saw the Dragon Boat Festival Holiday.
Umansky added that while the current estimate is conservative, GGR might drop if the typhoon season disrupts travel to Macau.
Seaport expects GGR to grow by 4 per cent in 2025, with the second half of the year likely to outperform the first. Growth is expected to be driven by increased marketing from casino operators and improvements in consumer sentiment, prompted by government stimulus in China.
