Macau GGR per visitor will be down by 6.6% in 2025, analysts say
CLSA says the figure for the first five months of the year was down by 10.7 per cent in year-on-year terms.
Macau.- Brokerage CLSA has reported that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) per visitor for the first five months of the year stood at around MOP5,906 (US$738.25), down 10.7 per cent in year-on-year terms. In April, GGR per visitor was MOP6,097 (US$762.13). Analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan now forecast that GGR per visitor for full year 2025 will be down by 6.6 per cent year-on-year to MOP6,064 (US$758). Analysts expect visitor arrival volume to grow by 9 per cent to 38.1 million.
Analysts said that although the EBITDA margin was strong in the first quarter of the year, growth in GGR remains slow while competition is intensifying. They forecast that the sector’s EBITDA for the second quarter of 2025 will be flat in year-on-year terms at US$1.96bn.
CLSA noted low confidence among Chinese consumers. The National Bureau of Statistics of China’s consumer confidence index hit a nearly 35-year low in March. After his April Policy Address, Macau’s chief executive, Sam Hou Fai, said that ongoing trade tensions between the US and China might have a significant impact on the value of China’s currency and on how much mainland Chinese visitors spend in Macau.
Macau GGR reaches US$1.59m in first 18 days of May
Analysts at Citigroup estimated that Macau’s GGR for the first 18 days of May was MOP12.7bn (US$1.59m). The estimated GGR run rate was MOP706m (US$87.6m) per day.
Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau said the daily run rate for the week of May 12-18 was MOP593m (US$73.6m), a rise of 3 per cent compared to the previous week. They said VIP volume rose 10 to 12 per cent month-on-month, while mass market GGR grew 6 to 8 per cent.
In April, Macau GGR was MOP18.86bn (US$2.36bn), an increase of 1.7 per cent in year-on-year terms but a dip of 4.1 per cent sequentially. GGR was 77.33 per cent of April 2019’s level. For the first four months of 2025, GGR was MOP76.51bn (US$9.54bn), up 0.8 per cent year-on-year. The figure was 23.3 per cent lower than the same period of 2019 (MOP99.74bn) (US$12.44bn).
