IMF lowers Macau GDP forecast for 2025
The International Monetary Fund had previously forecast a 7.3 per cent rise in Macau’s gross domestic product.
Macau.- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its growth forecast for Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) for this year from 7.3 per cent to 3.6 per cent. For 2026, the IMF has adjusted its projection to 3.5 per cent. In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF also cut its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.5 points to 2.8 per cent.
It said: “After enduring a prolonged and unprecedented series of shocks, the global economy appeared to have stabilised, with steady yet underwhelming growth rates. However, the landscape has changed as governments around the world reorder policy priorities, and uncertainties have climbed to new highs.
“Forecasts for global growth have been revised markedly down compared with the January 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, reflecting effective tariff rates to levels not seen in a century and a highly unpredictable environment. Global headline inflation is expected to decline at a slightly slower pace than what was expected in January.
“Intensifying downside risks dominate the outlook, amid escalating trade tensions and financial market adjustments. Divergent and swiftly changing policy positions or deteriorating sentiment could lead to even tighter global financial conditions. Ratcheting up a trade war and heightened trade policy uncertainty may further hinder both short-term and long-term growth prospects. Scaling back international cooperation could jeopardise progress toward a more resilient global economy.”
In 2024, Macau’s GDP rose by 8.8 per cent year-on-year to MOP403.31bn (US$50.35bn). That represents 86.4 per cent of 2019 growth, before the Covid-19 pandemic.
