New review confirms that Dutch gambling tax hike generated less revenue than expected
A review conducted by the government and gambling regulator shows tax collection has fallen well short of forecasts.
The Netherlands.- A new joint review by the Ministry of Finance and the Dutch gambling regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) shows that two-phase increase in gambling tax in the Netherlands has produced less revenue than what policymakers had anticipated. It concludes that regulatory changes and shifting market conditions have eroded the tax base, leaving the Treasury well below its forecasts.
Dutch gambling tax was raised in two stages: from 30.5 to 34.2 per cent on 1 January 2025, and then to 37.8 per cent at the start of the current calendar year. It had been forecast that the move would deliver an extra €108m revenue for the state in 2025 and €216m in 2026. However, the actual uplift barely moved the needle, with the tax rises generating only €2m in extra revenue in 2025 and €57m in 2026 when compared against 2024.
The KSA attributed this to a contracting gross gaming revenue (GGR) base. While the report notes that it is difficult to separate the impact of the tax hikes from other regulatory changes, it identifies several factors as having a potential impact on GGR, including player deposit limits and advertising restrictions.
From October 2024, monthly net deposits with licensed gambling operators were capped at €300 for younger adults and €700 for those aged 24 and above. Gambling sponsorship on TV programmes was banned in July 2024 and sponsorship of sports teams in 2025. The report also notes that a temporary boost from UEFA Euro 2024 quickly faded, while ongoing regulatory scrutiny created uncertainty. Some operators closed or restructured, citing the higher tax burden as a factor squeezing margins.
The tax hikes hit state‑owned operators particularly hard. Holland Casino reported dips in pre‑tax profit reductions of around €27m in 2025 and €54m in 2026. Nederlandse Loterij projected declines in corporate tax, statutory levies and profits of €16m in 2025 and €34m in 2026. Meanwhile, casino and gaming hall attendance dropped by roughly 11 per cent between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026, while the number of gaming halls continued to shrink.
Despite the financial strain, contributions to charities rose modestly by 1.8 per cent between 2024 and 2025. However, funding for sports fell by 3.6 per cent.
It has previously been suggested that the tax increase may have had an impact on channelisation, causing more players to move to unlicensed operators. The Dutch gambling industry trade body VNLOK has recently filed a legal complaint to the European Commission over Meta’s hosting of ads for such platforms.
