Irish gambling regulator considers enforcement action against major prediction market operator
The GRAI says it may escalate enforcement proceedings to the high court if a prediction platform fails to heed its warnings.
Ireland. The new Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) is considering escalating enforcement against a major offshore prediction market operator. Chief executive Anne Marie Caulfield has revealed that the regulator may commence legal proceedings against “one of the largest prediction market operators in the world” for unlawfully targeting Irish users.
Caulfield made the comments in an interview with RTÉ’s This Week. She said that most international gambling and prediction platforms complied once the regulator issued them with warning letters, but she said one case may end up advancing to Ireland’s High Court after warnings went unheeded.
For the vast majority of cases where we’ve intervened, they [global prediction market companies] have withdrawn their sites,” Ms Caulfield said. “But in the instance where they don’t do so, we can go to the High Court and get a blocking order for them, a blocking order for access to the site and also in relation to the funding involved.”
The GRAI was established last year under the Gambling Regulation Act 2024. The new legislation introduced a new licencing system for online igaming in Ireland, which came into force this month.
Despite the reforms, the GRAI cannot directly compel internet service providers to block unlicenced sites. Instead, it relies on legal threats to push companies into geo-blocking their services. Once it has issued warning letters to the operator in question, its option becomes the pursuit of costly and time-consuming court orders.
The clampdown on prediction markets in Europe
The GRAI’s stance comes amid growing resistance to prediction markets in Europe, with recent actions including Polymarket’s black-listing in Italy and in the Czech Republic. In France, the gambling regulator ANJ has ordered a new block on Polymarket after reports that users continued to place bets on the platform despite geo-blocking imposed back in 2024.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi were subject to a temporary blocking order on prediction platforms in Spain in April. Meanwhile, the German gambling regulator, the GGL, has launched an investigation into FIFA partner ADI Predictstreet, which received a gambling licence in Gibraltar earlier this year.
Last month, nine European regulators announced a joint initiative against prediction markets, warning consumers about player protection and market integrity risks. For its part, The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has cautioned that some prediction products could be deemed restricted financial instruments in the European Union (EU).
However, the introduction of the world’s first dedicated prediction market regulations in Gibraltar sets up a potential clash between regulators. Published by the territory’s Ministry for Justice, Trade and Industry, Gibraltar’s framework establishes prediction markets as a distinct category with its own authorisation and compliance requirements. An independent supervisory panel with experience in remote and digital markets will oversee implementation under the Gambling Act 2025.
