Gibraltar launches world’s first dedicated prediction market regulation framework
The government says the Gibraltar prediction market framework was created to “regulate innovation responsibly”.
Gibraltar.- After the controversial decision to grant a gambling licence to ADI Predictstreet in time for the World Cup, Gibraltar has now gone further. The Ministry for Justice, Trade and Industry has published a dedicated new regulatory framework for prediction platforms.
Published in the Government Gazette today, the new framework establishes prediction markets as a distinct category with its own authorisation and compliance requirements. An independent supervisory panel with experience in remote and digital markets will oversee implementation under the new Gambling Act 2025.
Minister for Justice Nigel Feetham said the government’s approach was intended to “regulate innovation responsibly by providing a clear regulatory framework for operators”.
“The focus is not on labels, but on ensuring that the chosen framework is capable of effective supervision and robust standards of market integrity, transparency, participant protection and financial crime prevention,” he added.
Writing on LinkedIn, the minister said that Gibraltar would “shortly license the first prediction market operator” under the new regime. He added that the jurisdiction had also “granted an Approval in Principle to a second operator and expect to issue a further Approval in Principle in the coming weeks.”
That second operator is presumably Wire Industries Inc, the parent company of WagerWire, which announced that it had received an approval in principle last month. Co-founder Travis Geiger has said the company plans to launch both B2B and B2C products by the NFL preseason and international football kick-off in August.
The Gibraltar prediction platform framework
The 24-page document outlining the prediction platform framework sets out conditions for operators. All event contracts must be certified a new a dedicated supervisory authority, which will be comparable to the role of the Gambling Commissioner overseeing Gibraltar’s regulated gambling market.
Contracts will have to be “clear, capable of objective settlement, not readily susceptible to manipulation and consistent with the regulatory objectives”, and operators must implement systems to prevent insider dealing, misuse of confidential information, or market manipulation.
Officials describe the Gibraltar prediction platform framework as a risk-based approach, targeting issues such as market integrity, participant protection, financial crime prevention, and operational resilience. The regulator will retain discretion to block contracts deemed contrary to public interest, including those linked to criminal activity, terrorism, war, or serious injury.
Feetham said: “This framework is the result of months of close collaboration with industry participants, whose expertise and engagement have helped shape a regime that is both innovative and robust. More importantly, it provides regulatory certainty for a rapidly developing global industry while creating new opportunities to attract investment, support high-value employment and further diversify Gibraltar’s economy.
“This is more than a new regulatory framework; it is a statement of intent. My ambition is to position Gibraltar as a leading jurisdiction for responsible digital innovation and for the development of new markets underpinned by high regulatory standards.
“This is also the second major regulatory framework I have introduced in as many weeks, following the tokenisation legislation announced recently. Together, they demonstrate Gibraltar’s commitment to remaining at the forefront of innovation by developing forward-looking frameworks that enable new sectors to grow with confidence.
ADI Predictstreet, which uses the ADI Chain initiated by Abu Dhabi-based Sirius International Holding, was initially granted a licence in Gibraltar under the territory’s existing gambling framework, creating the potential for conflict with prediction market operators’ claims that their products don’t count as gambling. The German gambling regulator, the GGL, has already launched an investigation into ADI Predictstreet.
Gibraltar’s position, initially a reaction to the potential impact of the rise in UK Remote Gaming Duty, is at odds with that of other European gambling regulators. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have been blocked in several European countries. Most recently, Italy reintroduced a block on Polymarket.
For its part, The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has cautioned that some prediction products could be deemed restricted financial instruments in the European Union (EU). It affirmed that prediction markets structured as yes-or-no contracts with fixed payouts may fall under prohibitions on the marketing and sale of binary options to retail customers.
