Gibraltar licenses first prediction markets operator in potentially controversial move
The Gibraltar prediction market licence comes as other European regulators seek to ban such platforms.
Gibraltar.- The government of Gibraltar has confirmed that it has granted a licence to a prediction markets operator, becoming one of the few European jurisdictions to regulate the format. Justice, Trade and Industry Minister Nigel Feetham announced the development in Parliament, describing it as part of Gibraltar’s strategy to diversify its gambling and financial services ecosystem.
“We have licensed a new company operating in the ‘prediction markets’ sector, processing the application in record time following my attendance at Consensus Hong Kong last month,” he said, referencing CoinDesk’s annual conference focused on crypto, blockchain and Web3.
While the government did disclose the operator’s identity, Predict Street Ltd now appears on Gibraltar’s register of licensed betting intermediaries. The firm promotes itself as the “Official Prediction Market Partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026” and is currently inviting users to register for early access by submitting their personal details. Abu Dhabi-based blockchain provider ADI Chain is said to provide the platform’s tech.
Lawmakers in Gibraltar have been evaluating how to protect the territory’s finances ahead of the expected impact on the igaming sector from the rise in UK Remote Gaming Tax, which comes into effect today. Feetham explicitly made the connection with this in his address in Parliament. He said the licence for a prediction markets platform was intended to offset losses from the increase in gambling duty while continuing to strengthen Gibraltar’s local economy.
“We are working relentlessly to protect Gibraltar’s economic interests,” he said.
However, the move to license a predictions platform in Gibraltar could cause controversy with other European nations. Prediction markets, which allow users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events, have surged in popularity as both speculative tools and engagement platforms. Globally, they have faced controversy over whether they should be classified as gambling or financial services.
Many EU countries, including Germany, The Netherlands, Romania, France and Portugal have explicitly banned certain platforms, such as Polymarket. Meanwhile, the British Gambling Commission has taken the view that prediction markets would be considered gambling under UK legislation and would therefore require a licence from the regulator.
Gibraltar’s move comes shortly after confirmation of work to evaluate the possible regulation of prediction platforms in Malta, another major hub for online gambling in Europe. Economy Minister Silvio Schembri said the country was considering the creation of a dedicated regulatory framework for the sector in a bid to resolve the question of whether the format should be considered as gambling or financial. He described the sector as having strong global momentum and significant potential for innovation.
Prediction markets have most gained traction in the US, where betting is only permitted in sports and not in all states. There, prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which deems them to offer “event contracts”. However, several states have passed or are in the process of considering legislation to ban the sector and a bipartisan Senate bill seeks to ban sports betting on online prediction markets at the federal level.
What next for prediction markets in Gibraltar?
It remains to be seen whether the big players like Kalshi or Polymarket will seek to take up Gibraltar’s openness to licensing prediction markets, or whether the territory’s existing igaming operators could branch into the sector. FanDuel and DraftKings have already launched prediction platforms in the US, while UK-based Matchbook announced plans to do so last year.
The main market for Gibraltar-licensed gambling operators is Britain, and it’s been suggested that the UK is less attractive for predictions platforms in comparison to the US and some other European countries since traditional betting operators already offer bets on a wide variety of non-sports markets, including on political events.
The Gambling Commission’s recent clarification suggests that it would be likely to seek enforcement action if a Gibraltar-licensed operator sought to target the UK without also obtaining a British gambling licence. Meanwhile, Gibraltar has licensed Predict Street Ltd under its existing gambling legislation, the 2005 Gambling Act, which would suggest an acceptance on the operator’s part that its product is gambling rather than a financial service.
