S&P Global predicts Macau 2023 mass GGR to recover to 60% of 2019 levels

The reason for the rise in their GGR 2023 forecast is the more rapid easing of Covid-19 control measures.

01/12/23

In the first few months of the year, the recovery could be gradual.

Macau.- Analysts Aras Poon and Sandy Lim from S&P Global Ratings have updated their forecast for Macau’s mass gross gaming revenue 2023. In a recent report, they said the figure will return to 60 to 70 per cent of the 2019 level this year.

The reason for the rise in their GGR 2023 forecast is the more rapid easing of Covid-19 control measures. S&P had been expecting an easing only “in the second quarter” this year, and that such relaxation “would be gradual”. But the actual “rapid shift away” from the country’s ‘zero-Covid’ policy “should support Macau’s gross gaming revenue recovery in 2023,” the agency stated.

“We expect the recovery could be gradual in the first few months, as high caseloads in China could make people reluctant to venture out at least initially,” the report stated. “However, we believe the recovery in mass GGR could accelerate more significantly in the second half of the year (to above 80 per cent of 2019 levels) based on the recovery we have observed in other gaming markets like Las Vegas and Singapore.”

The “biggest downside risk”, according to the analysts, is the “fear among the public” when large numbers of people contract Covid-19, which may lead to more voluntary social distancing and more suspension of activity and spending.

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