Macau GGR to rise 34% in 2024, analysts say

CLSA predicts Macau’s 2024 GGR will reach $30.3bn.

Macau.- Analysts at CLSA have predicted that Macau’s GGR for 2024 will increase by 34 per cent compared to last year, reaching US$30.3bn. This projection reflects a 3.5 per cent upward adjustment from previous estimates, fueled by a positive Chinese New Year period.

The firm forecast a 5 per cent rise in GGR in 2025, with gaming revenue expected to reach US$31.9bn. The outlook is attributed to revised visitation assumptions for traditionally slower months, which have been strong so far in 2024. 

However, CLSA has adjusted its forecast for gaming operators’ earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) downwards by 1 to 3 per cent due to the gradual normalisation of operations and disruptions caused by the revamp of Londoner Phase II. The CLSA expects sector EBITDA to remain 8 per cent below 2019 levels in 2024 but could recover slightly to 1 per cent below 2019 levels by 2025. 

Analysts noted that Macau’s visitation and gaming revenue have continued to rebound in the first quarter of 2024, with gaming revenue reaching 75 per cent of first-quarter 2019 levels and February visitations reaching 93 per cent of February 2019 levels. 

CLSA analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan highlight increased competition in the gaming industry, with all operators planning to introduce smart gaming tables in 2024. They also noted improvements in the sector’s balance sheets, with a 4 per cent year-over-year decline in net debt in 2023. For 2023, Macau’s GGR was MOP183.06bn (US$22.75bn). 

See also: RFID tables to boost Macau casino revenue, analysts say