Macau GGR reaches US$562m in first 8 days of December, analysts say
JP Morgan says daily average gross gaming revenue was MOP562m (US$57.7m) per day.
Macau.- Analysts at JP Morgan have estimated that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first eight days of December was MOP4.5bn (US$562m). The estimated GGR run rate was MOP$562m (US$57.7m) a day. That’s a 9 per cent decrease compared to the daily rate in November but analysts said it is in line with expectations due to increased controls ahead of president Xi Jinping’s visit for the 25th Anniversary of Macau’s handover to China on December 20.
According to analysts, mass market GGR has reached 105 per cent of 2019 levels, while VIP GGR has recovered to around 20 per cent, slightly lower than in the third quarter. DS Kim, Mufan Chi, and Selina Li have forecast that Q4 GGR will be up 3 to 4 per cent compared to the previous quarter, reaching the highest level in 20 quarters after two-quarters of decline.
Earlier this month, Citigroup projected that Macau’s GGR for December will reach MOP18.5bn (US$2.3bn), flat in year-on-year terms and up slightly compared to November. The figure would be 81 per cent of 2019 levels.
GGR for November was MOP18.4bn (US$2.31bn). That’s a decrease of 11.3 per cent compared to the previous month but a rise of 14.9 per cent in year-on-year terms. Compared to the same month in 2019, the figure was down by 19.4 per cent. Cumulatively, Macau’s GGR for the first eleven months of 2024 was MOP208.6bn (US$26.1bn), up 26.8 per cent year-on-year but down 22.6 per cent below the same period in 2019.
GGR to reach US$30.2bn in 2025
Citigroup has predicted that GGR in Macau will reach MOP242.5bn (US$30.2bn) in 2025, surpassing the government’s forecast by 1 per cent. The total would be 83 per cent of the 2019 level. As for 2026, analysts said GGR could reach MOP261.9bn or 90 per cent of the 2019 level.
Choi and Chau attributed the potential growth to increased visitor numbers, the expanded use of smart gaming tables, which allow operators to better assess player value and optimise marketing, and the rising popularity of side bets in baccarat games. They also noted that the government has a history of underestimating GGR.
New suite accommodations are also expected to contribute. Upcoming expansions include 1,500 suites at Sands China’s Londoner Grand, 100 suites at Galaxy Entertainment Groups’ Capella and 70 units at MGM China’s two properties in Macau. Analysts suggested that larger, premium accommodations will attract higher-value players, increasing their gaming activity.
The number of visitors to the city is also expected to grow due to the inclusion of 10 additional Chinese cities in the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS), boosting Macau’s tourist arrivals to approximately 35.7 million in 2025.
