Macau GGR could reach 45% of 2019 levels in June, analysts say

Bernstein Research predicts Macau GGR may slow down due to a rise in Covid-19 cases in China, which could lead to a decline in visitor arrivals.

Macau.- According to Bernstein Research, Macau’s Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) could reach MOP10.72bn this – that’s 45 per cent of pre-pandemic levels.

Analysts said GGR could be affected by a rise in Covid-19 cases in China, which may lead to a decline in visitation.

The majority of the city’s visitors come from mainland China, which remains the only country to have a largely quarantine-free travel bubble with Macau.

Analysts added that Macau’s GGR is usually weak in June when compared to other months. They expect a further recovery within July and August during the summer holiday period.

According to JP Morgan analysts, Macau GGR could reach between MOP11bn and MOP12bn between July and August.

Sanford Bernstein also expects Macau GGR for the year 2020 will be up 205 per cent when compared to the previous year to about 64 per cent of 2019 levels.

However, Morgan Stanley has cut its forecast for Macau GGR this year by 19 per cent to US$16.3bn. That would be just 45 per cent of 2019 levels but an improvement of 115.4 per cent when compared to 2020.

Morgan Stanley said it had revised its previous forecast due to the new rise in Covid-19 cases in Asia and the delay in easing travel restrictions between Hong Kong and Macau.

As for corporate EBITDA, analysts estimate US$2.89bn, down 37 per cent from its previous prediction of nearly US$4.6bn.

Morgan Stanley said: “Investors are waiting for Macau revenue/profit to normalise, which needs the reinstatement of the mainland’s electronic application system for Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) exit visas, the resumption of group visas, and Mainland-Hong Kong-Macau reopening.”

In May, Macau GGR was MOP10.45bn (US$1.31bn), up 24.3 per cent when compared with the previous month.

GGR was also up 492.2 per cent year-on-year and was the highest monthly revenue since the Covid-19 pandemic started.

Aggregate casino GGR for the first five months of the year totals MOP42.49bn, up 29 per cent year-on-year.

May’s numbers were fueled by the Labour Day break, when Macau’s Public Security Police reported that 165,500 tourists came to Macau.

According to the Macau Government Tourism Office, the first day of the Labour Day break set the highest daily volume of visitors since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, with 44,000 arrivals.