Macau GDP rises 11.5% in first nine months of the year

Exports of gaming services increased by around 28.4 per cent year-on-year.

Macau.- The Macau Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) has reported that gross domestic product (GDP) for the first nine months of the year was up 11.5 per cent in year-on-year terms at MOP301.0bn (US$37.4bn). It’s the first time since 2019 that January-to-October GDP surpassed MOP300bn. Economic output reached 86.3 per cent of that of the same period in 2019.

Exports of gaming services rose by 28.4 per cent. However, exports of other tourism-related services declined by 6.1 per cent due to the high comparison base in the same period last year. Exports and imports of goods fell by 15.1 per cent and 8.3 per cent respectively.

The DSEC highlighted that domestic demand grew by 2.7 per cent year-on-year. Private consumption expenditure rose by 5.8 per cent year-on-year, with household spending domestically and abroad growing by 4.8 per cent and 13.6 per cent, respectively. Government final consumption expenditure fell by 10.1 per cent in year-on-year terms following the cessation of the livelihood subsidy scheme. Net purchases of goods and services fell by 21.9 per cent year-on-year, while compensation of employees remained “virtually unchanged.”

In the third quarter, GDP was up 4.7 per cent year-on-year and reached 87.3 per cent of the third-quarter 2019 level. The growth was mainly driven by an 11.2 per cent rise in gaming-related exports. Exports of services rose by 1.3 per cent year-on-year while exports of other tourism services fell by 14.5 per cent. The implicit deflator of GDP, which measures overall price changes, increased by 1.5 per cent to 106.7.

In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its growth forecast for Macau’s GDP for this year from 13.9 per cent to 10.6 per cent. For 2025, the IMF has adjusted the growth projection from 9.6 per cent to 7.3 per cent. According to the IMF forecast, the GDP will return to pre-pandemic levels next year. It predicts that inflation will stay low, with consumer prices rising by 1.1 per cent this year, with unemployment at 1.8 per cent.

In 2023, Macau’s GDP rose 80.5 per cent year-on-year in real terms. That represents a recovery to over 80 per cent of 2019 levels, before the Covid-19 pandemic. Per-capita GDP for 2023 reached MOP559,495 (US$69,393).

Fitch ratings expects Macau GDP to rise 15% this year

Fitch Ratings has forecast Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 15 per cent this year and 8 per cent in 2025 amid the resurgence of the gaming tourism sector. It said the sector would be boosted by travel policy adjustments that favour tourism between Macau and Hengqin Island allowing mainland residents with a business visa to stay for up to 14 rather than seven days.

Fitch has reaffirmed Macau’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at AA, with a stable outlook highlighting the city’s “exceptionally strong public and external finances, and demonstrated fiscal prudence even during periods of economic and gaming revenue shocks.” It noted however that the continued reliance on gaming tourism from mainland China remains a risk, given the potential influence of policy changes affecting tourism.