IMF forecasts 3.3% growth for Macau as gaming slows
The IMF said gaming and tourism aided real GDP growth of 7.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2026.
Macau.- The IMF has projected that Macau’s economy will expand by 3.3 per cent in 2026, with slower gaming activity, higher interest rates and continued reliance on the casino sector expected to temper growth. It noted that while tourism has recovered beyond pre-pandemic levels, casino revenue has yet to do the same.
The forecast was published in the IMF’s Staff Concluding Statement following its 2026 Article IV consultation with Macau, conducted between July 14 and 23. The IMF noted that gross gaming revenue remains about 15 per cent below its pre-pandemic peak, attributing the shortfall to lasting changes in the VIP gambling market, stricter anti-money laundering enforcement and shifts in visitor spending patterns.
The IMF said gaming and tourism aided real GDP growth of 4.7 per cent in 2025 and 7.1 per cent year over year in the first quarter of 2026. However, it said weak private investment, subdued domestic demand, tight credit conditions and the prolonged downturn in the property market continue to weigh and warned that increasing competition from other gaming destinations alongside geopolitical tensions could reduce visitor demand.
The report predicts that economic growth will slow to around 3 per cent over the medium term, although investment commitments by Macau’s six gaming concessionaires in non-gaming projects are expected to provide some support. It noted that Macau’s fiscal position and banking system remain strong and that banks remain well capitalised and liquid, although non-performing loans remain elevated because of property-related exposures in Macau and mainland China.
The fund urged the government to accelerate spending on infrastructure, health care and social programmes while continuing to reduce the economy’s dependence on casino tax revenue. It recommended expanding non-gaming industries through investment, talent development, digitalisation and artificial intelligence, supported by opportunities in the Guangdong-Macau In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin.
The IMF also called for continued progress on anti-money laundering reforms ahead of Macau’s 2028 evaluation by the Asia/Pacific Group on Money Laundering and recommended stronger oversight of the growing non-bank financial sector.
