Gambling in Thailand: casinos could generate US$9.1bn in annual GGR, analysts say

Analysts at Citigroup expect the bill to legalise casinos in the country to be approved by mid-2025.

Thailand.- Analysts at Citigroup have forecast that casinos in Thailand could generate US$1.91bn annually in gross gaming revenue (GGR). That would surpass the GGR of Singapore’s two casinos and place Thailand “only behind Macau and Las Vegas.”

Analysts George Choi, Preenapa Detchsri, and Timothy Chau based their analysis on the assumption of two licences in Bangkok and one each in Pattaya, Phuket, and Chiang Mai, all popular destinations for international tourists. The analysts suggested the bill to legalise integrated resorts with casinos could be approved as early as mid-2025.

They noted that while “openings will probably be at least six years from now,” a potential Thai casino industry market had the potential to “reshape the revenue pie of the global gaming industry.” They estimated that any international casino operator granted an entertainment complex licence in Bangkok could expect at least a 15 per cent increase in EBITDA while some operators could see annual EBITDA nearly double assuming a 50:50 joint venture with local partners.

“In light of the lower gaming tax rate at 17 per cent and the lower operating expenses – mostly wages and utilities – versus Singapore, we believe EBITDA margin could reach 40 per cent to 50 per cent, which implies Thailand could see industry EBITDA of approximately US$4.1bn annually,” they said.

In October, deputy finance minister Julapun Amornvivat said that the draft bill could be submitted to the cabinet for consideration by the end of this year. After cabinet approval, the bill will be forwarded for parliamentary deliberation. The House of Representatives will reconvene for a regular session from mid-December until April next year.

The draft bill proposes 30-year casino licences with the option for a 10-year renewal. Complexes would be located in designated areas and operated by companies registered in Thailand with a minimum paid-up capital of THB10bn (US$283m). A policy panel led by the prime minister and a regulatory agency would oversee the industry.

According to a study by the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), the establishment of IRs could increase visits to Thailand by 5 to 20 per cent and increase spending per visitor from THB40,000 (US$1,184) to THB60,000 (US$1,776).

See also: Legalisation of casinos in Thailand: call for discussions on tax revenue collection