CLSA trims 2027 and 2028 Macau GGR forecasts
The revised outlook points to modest GGR growth despite higher visitor numbers.
Macau.- CLSA has lowered its Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecasts for 2027 and 2028, citing weaker economic indicators in China and rising operating costs across the sector. The brokerage forecast GGR of MOP259.2bn (US$32.12bn) in 2027, down 4 per cent from its previous estimate and representing 2.4 per cent year-on-year growth. It’s cut its 2028 forecast by 3 per cent to MOP270.4bn (US$33.51bn), implying 4.3 per cent growth.
CLSA’s forecast implies an average daily GGR run-rate of about MOP710m (US$87.94m) in 2027 and MOP739m (US$91.53m) in 2028. The brokerage expects margins to remain difficult to expand if casino revenue continues to grow only at low-single-digit rates. It’s maintained its full-year 2026 GGR estimate at MOP253.2bn (US$31.37bn) and raised its September view to MOP18.6bn (US$2.30bn).
CLSA expects higher visitation to drive most of next year’s GGR growth, supported by easier comparisons and a potentially stronger renminbi. However, the brokerage does not expect a strong increase in spending per visitor. Macau reached 30 million visitor arrivals for 2026 on September 11, 22 days earlier than in 2025.
CLSA uses the spread between China’s producer price index and purchasing price index as a key indicator for Macau GGR. This has remained negative since February, coming in at -3.31 percentage points in August, amid higher oil prices.
The brokerage estimates that movements in the indicator have historically preceded changes in Macau GGR by roughly six months. CLSA therefore expects limited room for Macau gaming revenue to outperform its current assumptions in the near term, even if currency movements and visitor numbers provide some support.
Casino costs rise
CLSA also expects profitability to remain under pressure as operating costs rise faster than gaming revenue. In the second quarter, property-level operating expenses excluding depreciation and amortisation increased 2 per cent year-on-year, while sector-wide GGR declined 0.1 per cent. Reported EBITDA fell 10.7 per cent to about US$1.81bn.
The brokerage said wage increases across Macau’s six casino concessionaires are adding to the cost base. All six operators announced salary increases for 2026, with increases generally around 2 per cent for employees earning above MOP16,000 (US$1,982) per month, while lower-paid workers received larger percentage increases through fixed-value adjustments.
