JP Morgan raises Wynn UAE 2027 capex forecast to $350m
The analysis links part of the higher project cost to regional conflict, while maintaining a positive outlook for the UAE resort.
US investment bank JP Morgan said in an analysis published on August 4, 2026, that it expects Wynn Resorts to more than triple its planned 2027 capital spending on the Wynn Al Marjan Island development in the UAE, following a US$600m increase in the project’s total budget.
The bank estimates that Wynn will allocate US$300m to US$350m to the Ras Al Khaimah resort in 2027, compared with its previous forecast of US$75m to US$100m. The higher estimate reflects the additional equity required after the project’s budget was raised from US$5.1bn to US$5.7bn.
Wynn holds a 40 per cent stake in the development alongside Marjan and RAK Hospitality Holding. Craig Fullalove, chief financial officer of Wynn Resorts, said the increase in the overall budget would require about US$240m in additional equity from Wynn.
The resort is now expected to open in September 2027, around six months later than the previous spring 2027 target. Daniel Politzer, Samuel Nielsen and Michael Hirsh, JP Morgan analysts, said the revised timeline and increased spending could improve visibility around the project, which investors have previously struggled to assess.
Analysts said: “While early, we think Wynn’s 2027 setup is starting to look compelling: UAE is back to being a positive catalyst.”
JP Morgan attributed roughly half of the US$600m increase to the conflict in the region, citing higher procurement, material and shipping costs, as well as additional pre-opening expenses and capitalised interest resulting from the longer construction period. The remaining increase was linked to changes in the project’s scale, remeasurement and trade coordination costs.
Despite the higher investment, JP Morgan said the resort could generate attractive returns. Its base case assumes US$625m in earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, amortisation and management fees (EBITDAM), translating into an 11 per cent cash-on-cash return. Under its bull case, US$800m in EBITDAM would produce a 14 per cent return.
Wynn has already contributed about US$1.06bn to the development. Its remaining equity requirement for the wider project, including the adjacent Janu Al Marjan Island development, is expected to be between US$525m and US$650m.
JP Morgan also viewed management’s decision to retain a September 2027 opening target as a positive signal for the UAE market. Wynn has said the intensity of the regional conflict specifically affecting the UAE has eased, while the revised opening date is based on when the resort is expected to be operational.
Wynn confirms September 2027 opening for Al Marjan Island resort after US$600m budget increase
Wynn Resorts has confirmed that its Wynn Al Marjan Island integrated resort will open in September 2027, giving a firm month for the first time after previously targeting the first quarter of the year.
The update was included in the company’s second-quarter 2026 financial results, released on Tuesday, August 4. It follows an earlier denial by Wynn that any change to the opening date was under consideration, after a Bloomberg report in May suggested a possible delay linked to the regional conflict.
Craig Billings, chief executive of Wynn Resorts, said: “We continue to invest in both growing and diversifying our business with construction at Wynn Al Marjan Island progressing at a rapid pace. Wynn Resorts, alongside our partners in Ras Al Khaimah, are now pleased to announce that Wynn Al Marjan Island, the most exciting integrated resort to be developed in over a decade, will open its doors to guests in September of 2027.”
