PRA in basketball explained: betting on points, rebounds & assists

Contents:

1. Understanding PRA in basketball betting
2. What does PRA stand for?
3. How PRA betting works
4. Over and under markets
5. Reading a typical player prop line
6. PRA betting example using an NBA player
7. Why PRA is One of the Most Popular NBA Player Props for Gamblers
8. PRA vs points props
9. PRA vs other combined player props
10. Points and rebounds (PR)
11. Points and assists (PA)
12. Rebounds and assists (RA)
13. Triple-double and double-double markets
14. Key factors to analyze before betting player performance
15. Minutes and expected playing time
16. Usage rate and offensive role
17. Opponent defensive matchup
18. Injuries and team rotation changes
19. How pace and game environment affect player totals
20. Advanced metrics bettors use when evaluating player props
21. Usage rate
22. Rebound percentage
23. Assist rate
24. Expected possessions per game
25. Strategy tips for basketball player props
26. FAQs
27. What does PRA mean in basketball betting?
28. How is PRA calculated?
29. Is PRA betting popular in the NBA?
30. Why do bettors like PRA props?
31. Is PRA better than betting points only?

Modern day sports bettors love to be given the option to mix up their typical betting styles of betting on a simple point spread and/or moneyline for an NBA basketball game. This is often the case for various statistical combo markets offered by multiple online sportsbooks. When it comes to a three statistic category combo like Points, Rebounds, and Assists (PRA) in basketball for all NBA basketball betting enthusiasts, for example, PRA in basketball explained: betting on points, rebounds & assists can make for a perfect high-quality NBA basketball statistical combo market for those basketball gamblers who love player props in NBA basketball and would like to analyze one athlete’s individual all-around statistical performance within any NBA basketball game in order to place wagers on all-around individual NBA athletes.

Understanding PRA in basketball betting

This type of wager measures a basketball player’s overall performance. It’s a total or “over/under” wager for a single basketball player based on three of the more important statistics found in a player’s box score for a game. These statistics are the sum of the Points, Rebounds, and Assists for a basketball player for a single game. The numbers are based on the official NBA stats for a basketball player found at nba.com.

The PRA betting market is a performance-based product that is strictly regulated by the rules of the NBA and the NBPA. There are regulations in place to govern wager limits and other market restrictions as well as rules as to where basketball wagers are permitted to be placed. All NBA players, coaches, referees and team staff are prohibited from participating in any basketball-related wagers while in or out of season. Fans of the game and casual bettors can however place wagers on all NBA-related markets in jurisdictions where sports betting is permitted and legal. All bets are settled in accordance with the rules of the sportsbook that is offering the specific market. Late line changes that become available after a wager has been placed on a player who is a late scratch from his team’s starting lineup will result in the wager being deemed void.

What does PRA stand for?

PRA stands for Points, Rebounds and Assists. These are the 3 statistics in NBA box scores by individual that are used by the sportsbooks in basketball, in addition to fantasy, statistics and information products, to determine a more complete statistic to give bettors a better feel for the individual basketball player’s performance in the game and combine them into a single statistic. There is no single official category in NBA box scores to measure individual player performance.

How PRA betting works

In regards to the method behind PRA betting, the number of a PRA is determined by the oddsmaker’s historical statistics of players and teams as well as past performances. Most importantly however, is the expected pace of the game. For example, the expected pace of the game can go up or down leading the number to go up or down as well. For example, a player’s PRA number may be set at 52.5. The oddsmaker is saying prior to the game that he expects that player to tally up 52.5 points, assists, and rebounds in the game. At the end of the game all of the player’s official statistics will be added up together. If the player’s total comes out to be above the number set by the oddsmaker then the over side of the PRA wager will win. On the flip side, if the player’s statistics tally up to be below the number set by the oddsmaker then the under side of the PRA wager will win. For example, if a PRA number is set at 52.5 then all of a player’s official statistics will be added up at the end of the game and if the player’s total comes out to be 53 then the over side wins. Conversely, if the player’s total comes out to be 51.5 then the under side would win.

Over and under markets

The Over/Under wager on a basketball player’s PRA is typically expressed with a decimal value and half-point to prevent a tie between both the athlete and bookmaker for PRA lines that are whole numbers. An example of such a line for a given match would be a player to post Over 31.5 points. In order to win such a bet, the athlete would need to score 32 or more points in the contest. Conversely, for the Under 31.5 line, the player would need to post 31 or fewer points for his wagers to pay outperform those of the book.

See also: What is a unit in sports betting? how to use and manage your wagers like a pro

Reading a typical player prop line

For those unfamiliar with reading typical player prop lines, first off you should know that the first number or words in a player prop will be the name of the player you are betting on. Next will be the middle number or numbers in the line which will represent the total score for the specified market for that player for the contest. You will then see the letters ‘O’ and ‘U’ which represent the option to bet the player’s total score for the specified market to be Over or Under for the listed number. Lastly, between the over and under for the listed score for the specified market for the player, there will be listed the ‘implied probability’ and ‘juice’ of the point spread for both the over and under for the listed projected score for the specified market for the player.

Again using the example of Player X, 34.5 would be the total projected points for Player X. In this case, the “O” and “U” would signify the total points for Player X’s Over and Under statistics, respectively. Both the “O” and “U” would have -110 odds, meaning that a $110 wager on the “O” or “U” would pay out $100. The odds for both the Over and Under statistics for Player X could fluctuate throughout the live market based on action. For example, if a lot of money comes in on the Over for Player X then the odds for the Over for Player X could change to -125 or the market could move the total up to 35.5 for the Over for Player X.

PRA betting example using an NBA player

Below is an example of NBA Superstar Luka Doncic’s PRA stats for the season, and how an example sportsbook sets his PRA prop for a given matchup. The project for Luka’s PRA is set at 54.5 points, rebounds, and assists combined for the contest. For a bet over his total, Doncic must record a total of 55 or more points, rebounds, and assists in the contest for the winning ticket.

For example, let’s say we have projected PRA of 54.5 for Luka Dončić tonight. An Over bet on 54.5 points for example would win if he finishes the game with 55 points or more for example. It does not matter how he got the points. For example, Dončić finishes the game with 32 points, 10 rebounds, and 13 assists for a total of 32 + 10 + 13 = 55 points. His bet would win in this scenario.

On the other hand, for those betting the total number of Luka Doncic’s numbers for the game would be 39 (22 points + 8 rebounds + 9 assists), thus those who bet the Under would win.

Why PRA is One of the Most Popular NBA Player Props for Gamblers

PRA combos are very popular because they show the complete potential of a player in the best possible light. There are many ways for a player to end up reaching the over of his PRA. In the case of a high scoring superstar who is frequently doubled teamed by the opposing team, he can help reach the over of his PRA by making passes to open teammates for baskets and by grabbing defensive board to give his teammates possession of the ball. There are many scenarios in which such a player can help reach the over of his PRA even when his opportunities to score are limited.

PRA vs points props

This is another misconception many people have when it comes to comparing PRA props to traditional points props. People make the mistake and think that by combining stats from various aspects of the game into 1 prop, the variance will actually be decreased and thus be ‘safer’ to bet. In reality, all you are doing is moving the risk around to more aspects of the game, there is no guarantee that one will be safer than the other.

Feature	PRA	Points Props
Risk Profile	Shifts variance across multiple statistical categories	Highly dependent on shooting volume and efficiency
Matchup Sensitivity	Impacted by overall game flow, pace, and team defense	Heavily impacted by primary defenders and scheme
Best Use Case	All-around contributors, point guards, and versatile bigs	Pure scorers and high-volume shooters with low assist rates

PRA vs other combined player props

Variations of combo prop wagers that include 2+ players in a proposition, listed on various sportsbooks, can have very similar nature to one another, while allowing the betting hand to target a specific area of the box score of a team, while at same time determining how two individuals can put up enough combined statistics to go Over in that category, considering both players’ individual statistics, roles on their respective teams and the starting lineup of the opposing team.

Points and rebounds (PR)

The Points and Rebounds statistics prop line is a popular one among players who can put up high numbers of scoring and rebounding while also not taking a large amount of passes and attempting to get others involved in the offense. The type of player that would fit this bill is a big man, typically a power forward or center. This could also be a larger wing player that is looked to in order to take on more of a scoring role. As long as the player is getting enough opportunities to put up high numbers of scoring and rebounding then this could be a good statistics prop line to target.

Points and assists (PA)

These stats focus on half of the basketball game- the scoring end of the floor and passing the ball to start an offensive possession by a team. As a result, points and assists stats to focus on are players that can be the primary starter for the team to begin an offense. They could be a big or small and the key is that this person does not have to go get on the glass for rebounds as they get to take shots for points all night long as well. Typically the ball handler for a team is going to be a smaller guy to begin with, but can be larger also.

Rebounds and assists (RA)

Rebounds and assists (RA) for pass-first bigs: There are a number of big men who are excellent passers on the team. This type of player is best to bet for in Rebounds and assists (RA) markets. An example would be a high-assist big man or a big who is a defensive specialist that plays off the bench for his team and is a high passer among his forwards.

Triple-double and double-double markets

Threshold props such as Double Double or Triple Double props are also offered by many sportsbooks and these are not to be confused with the player prop markets that offer up the total of a player in a particular category over/under for a given game. There are a variety of ways in which these Double Double and Triple Double props can be laid out for players. For the most part, a bettor can expect these props to be laid out in such a way that awards a bettor should a given player record 10 or more in 2 of 3 given statistics for a Double Double, and 10 or more in all 3 given statistics for a Triple Double Double and Triple Double with 3 given statistics for a Triple Double with large plus money payouts available for the Triple Double prop where a player records 10 or more in all 3 given statistics for the given game. For this reason, these wagers are best used in an attempt to identify value outside of typical combo prop markets given that high total combo prop wagers generally correlate with double-double and triple-double type performances by players.

See also: What do plus and minus mean in betting? Understanding odds and payouts

Key factors to analyze before betting player performance

Minutes and expected playing time

Another crucial point of analysis when handicapping player props is the player’s expected playing time before the tip-off of said game. No better indicator of a player’s potential for amassing stats exists than the amount of time for which a player is expected to be on the court. This aspect can be examined by assessing information pertaining to the team’s rotation, how a team starts versus how they bring in their bench, as well as the potential for a team to be involved in a blowout, thus affecting the amount of time that a team’s starters will be on the court in the final period of the contest. Large favorites will typically see their starters on the court for a minimal time in the fourth quarter, thus proving to be little risk in going Over on a prop bet for the starters on the favored team.

Usage rate and offensive role

Usage rate – This number details the percentage of possessions that a player begins with on the floor. This is by far the greatest determining factor for a player’s production on any given night. Players in primary scoring roles typically have the highest usage rate and thus can be expected to put up good numbers regardless of whether their team is ahead or behind.

Opponent defensive matchup

A good handicapper will look at the Defensive Matchup of the opponent that the player is facing off against. The NBA teams use different defensive schemes to guard different positions. For example, teams that use “drop coverage” on ball handlers can create a lot of assists for the point guard, which would be a great time to bet the Over for the combined prop of two point guards.

Injuries and team rotation changes

NBA teams, and the league as a whole, go to great lengths to detail the injuries of players in order to keep the market as informed and fair as possible. Because of this, the injury of a star to his teammate can have the opposite effect of what most might assume and actually increase the statistical ceiling of said teammate for that one game.

How pace and game environment affect player totals

Additionally, the pace of a team’s games as well as the environment that a team plays in can affect the totals for a player’s stats. This can include a team’s average of possessions per game as well as how fast or slow paced a team’s games are. Two very up-tempo teams would have higher totals for their player’s stats than two slow paced defensive teams. And lastly, the total for the game (over/under) can also be a valuable tool in determining whether to look for over or under totals on individual player props.

Game environment is a term I use to refer to both the Game Total and the Point Spread of the game. Thus, high scoring games with high totals on the Game Total will have the individual Player Props tied to the Over of the Game Total as well.

Advanced metrics bettors use when evaluating player props

A serious bettor will want to look at the advanced statistics in order to gain more knowledge of a player’s actual performance as opposed to what their statistics were at the beginning of the year.

Usage rate

Usage rate measures the level of involvement a player has in their team’s offense. Scoring and passing statistics are the main things to pay attention to when evaluating a player’s usage rate and predicting their future statistics based on that.

Rebound percentage

Rebound percentage is a statistic used by basketball handicappers that is different than most other basketball statistics. For example, minute figures are affected by a multitude of variables including but not limited to; injuries to players, different lineups that are used by a team as well as players being moved to different positions on the court. In contrast to these types of statistics rebound percentage is an isolated statistic used to measure individual players. The statistic measures the percentage of available misses that a player is able to grab down for his team while he is on the court.

Assist rate

The Assist rate, also reported as Assist%, is the percentage of field goal attempts by a teammates when a particular player is on the floor. This metric is extremely valuable to handicappers as it assists (no pun intended) in gauging a primary ball handler’s assist ceiling. In effect, how good is this particular ball handler in getting his teammates involved in scoring?

Expected possessions per game

Expected possessions per game, for both teams in a matchup, gives the combined ceiling of all player props. For example, if a matchup has a high total and is a fast-paced game, there will be many total expected possessions in the game. This means that all of the player props for both teams will have a high ceiling, and thus many of the player props will be likely to go Over.

Strategy tips for basketball player props

In order to find value in performance markets for basketball player props you have to take a very in depth and rigorous approach to studying the statistics behind player props in order to make proper wagers.

• Follow injuries: A late scratch of a key player can have a massive impact on a player’s expected volume and create a lot of value for the prop market. Wait for the official injury report from the team or league before making any wagers on that player.
• Matchup analysis: Bet up against the worst defense at an athlete’s position. Analyze each team’s defense by position.
• Line shop: Shopping for the highest closing line for your intended NBA PRA wagers will make sure you are receiving the best value for your hard earned cash. Research all sports books for the closes before placing your bets for optimal return.
• Track form and environment: Follow a player’s normal form and also the environment in which they play. Intense playoff games, rivalry games, and also changes in a team’s strategy can result in a player’s typical averages not being accurate.

FAQs

What does PRA mean in basketball betting?

PRA in basketball explained: betting on points, rebounds & assists.

How is PRA calculated?

PRA calculations, for purposes of basketball betting, are always done including overtime. The way that PRA wagers are settled is by reference to the official box score published by the player’s league for the completed game. In other words, official PRA numbers are based on the same statistics that players and bookmakers see following a game.

Is PRA betting popular in the NBA?

PRA NBA props are one of the most popular NBA prop combinations offered to bet. Most major sportsbooks operating for cash to pay winners offer PRA props for almost every NBA game.

Why do bettors like PRA props?

This type of wager is more favorable to most gamblers because they are able to see a player’s full impact on the game rather than just how they are scoring on the night. For example, a player could be having a terrible shooting night but have a great game of rebounding and assisting and thus satisfy his PRA wagers for the night.

Is PRA better than betting points only?

While PRA betting can be very profitable, it is by no means better than simply betting on the points of a particular player. It does, however, open up a number of ways for a single player to put up a good number for the over in a given game. His poor shooting for the season could be offset by a huge number of rebounds and assists for the night, thus rendering him a good play for those who follow PRA stats.

See also: What is value betting? how to spot profitable opportunities in sports betting