French gambling regulator warns of “addictive characteristics” of prediction market platforms
The ANJ says prediction market platforms appeal to a new demographic beyond traditional betting apps.
France.- Prediction markets platforms continue to attract scrutiny outside of their main growth market of the US. France’s gambling regulator has now raised concerns about “addictive characteristics” and the exposure of users to risks not present on regulated betting sites.
L’ Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) says prediction market platforms appeal to a “new demographic” that had not previously engaged with casinos or sports betting by framing event-based contracts as an “investment option”.
The regulator cautioned: “This perception of the ‘prediction market’ as a form of ‘investment’ reinforces an illusion of competence: the more competent the user believes themselves to be, the more they play, and the more addictive the behaviour becomes.”
The ANJ noted that media coverage of large winnings and the promise of “easy” profits often likened to cryptocurrency trading intensifies this effect, encouraging players to believe they can “predict the news better than everyone else.” Unlike licensed gambling platforms, prediction markets lack safeguards such as staking limits, session caps and age verification, it says.
Beyond addiction, the regulator highlighted broader dangers: “As soon as an actor can bet on an event and influence its probability, the market creates a financial incentive to provoke or accelerate negative outcomes such as performance sabotage in sports or violent actions in geopolitics.”
Polymarket blocked access to French users after being contacted by the ANJ and warned that it was probably breaking French law by offering unauthorised gambling. However, the regulator’s latest warning shows that it remains concerned that prediction market operators are targeting French customers, potentially signalling more enforcement attention to come.
Elsewhere in Europe, the Gambling Commission has clarified that it believes prediction markets would need a gambling licence in the UK, while the Dutch regulator, the KSA has warned Polymarket that it could be fined for offering gambling without a licence.
The warning came after action against Polymarket, which restricted access for French users following contact from the ANJ. The authority said the platform was “likely” offering unauthorised gambling and games of chance.
