Brokerages slam unofficial data providers in Macau

After missing the GGR goal by 7.5 per cent, “channel checks” have been hardly criticised by the investment community in Macau.

Macau.- According to “channel checks”, which provide unofficial information on Macau’s growth, gross gaming revenue was on track to expand by 20 per cent in June. However, the estimation was widely missed as it only reached a 12.5 per cent expansion to US$2.81 billion and caused the severe critics of several brokerages and the investment community.

“In hindsight, we can’t help but question the credibility of these weekly data,” said analysts DS Kim and Sean Zhuang of JP Morgan Securities Ltd in a Monday note and added: “The miss was partly driven by elevated estimates, as the Street had hastily revised up numbers during the month, reflecting upbeat channel checks from industry consultants.”

“In May, the downward surprise was similarly pronounced,” wrote Sandford Bernstein’s Vitaly Umansky, Zhen Gong and Kelsey Zhu, regarding the comparison between estimates by channel checks and the actual growth and added: “Assuming the accuracy of the weekly channel checks, the implied average daily revenue for the last six days of June would have only been US$57.7 million.”

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc analysts Carlo Santarelli and Danny Valoy, also addressed the issue and said: “If not for checks (which were incorrect last month as well), expectations would not have exceeded our +12.0 percent estimate.”