Analysts at Fitch Ratings Inc also predict that Macau’s economy could expand by 19 per cent this year.
Macau.- Fitch Ratings expects Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) to be about 44 per cent of pre-pandemic levels this year. Analysts expect the city could see revenue of MOP129bn in 2022. In 2019, Macau’s casinos grossed MOP292.46bm (US$36.5bn).
Fitch also forecast Macau’s economy to grow by 19 per cent in 2022, based on the assumed GGR.
Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd has previously come to a similar conclusion, predicting that Macau’s GGR could recover 47 per cent year-over-year in 2022 to around 44 per cent of pre-pandemic levels seen in 2019.
Assuming no local outbreak of Covid-19, authorities forecast gross casino gaming revenue of MOP130bn in 2022, down 44.5 per cent from 2019. Casino gaming revenue in the first quarter of 2022 was MOP17.77bn, down 24.8 per cent when compared to 2021 and just 23.3 per cent of GGR recorded in the first three months of 2019.
Macau’s full-year gross gambling revenue for 2021 was up 43.7 per cent year-on-year at MOP86.86bn (US$10.82bn).
Fitch said it expects the recovery of the gaming tourism industry could accelerate in the second half of 2022, supported by a gradual recovery of inbound tourism in mainland China as it continues to be the only country to have a largely quarantine-free travel bubble with Macau.
However, the rating agency added: “the timeline for full normalisation of mainland tourism and easing of international border restrictions remains uncertain, and depends on the further development of the pandemic and containment policies.”
Macau: March GGR lowest since September 2020
Gross gaming revenue (GGR) from Macau casinos was down 52.7 per cent month-on-month in March, from MOP7.76bn (US$963.8m) to MOP3.67bn (US$454.5m). The figure was the lowest since September 2020, when the tally was MOP2.2bn.
Macau’s GGR was also down 55.8 per cent when compared to March 2021, when revenue was MOP$8.3bn (US$1.04bn). According to analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd the tightened border policy remains “the main dragger” of poor GGR.