AGA forecasts $29.5bn in legal NFL wagering
The trade body projects little change from last year’s handle.
US.- The American Gaming Association (AGA) has estimated that US bettors will legally wager $29.5bn on the 2026 NFL season through regulated commercial sportsbooks. That would mean virtually no growth from last season’s $29.4bn handle.
The estimate is based on national handle growth to date in 2026 applied to last year’s estimated NFL season total, together with football-specific reporting from selected states. The figure includes preseason games, futures booked as early as March, the playoffs and Super Bowl LXI in February 2027.
The AGA blamed the expected stagnation on prediction markets, which it said are offering sports-related contracts in all 50 states and Washington, DC. That includes the 40 jurisdictions where sports betting is legal and the 11 states that have not legalised the activity.
Bill Miller, AGA president and CEO, said: “We’re excited for the NFL season to kick off, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favourite teams. Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalised sports betting has seen tremendous growth. But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called ‘prediction markets,’ the growth of legal handle has stalled.”
Sports bets account for about 80 per cent of volume on Kalshi, the AGA said, including an estimated $5.1bn from users aged 18 to 20, below the legal sports betting age in 35 of the 40 jurisdictions where sports betting is legal.
Miller said: “These ‘prediction market’ platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment. Kalshi and other ‘prediction markets’ say they don’t need to follow state- and tribal- regulated sports betting laws or pay state gaming taxes. Their defiance means consumers, including teenagers and freshmen, are placing bets without the protections, oversight, and accountability that the legal market provides.”
