AGA estimates $29.5bn in legal NFL wagering as prediction markets stall growth
The trade body projects little change from last year’s handle.
Key takeaways
- AGA forecasts $29.5bn in legal NFL wagering for the 2026 season, nearly flat versus $29.4bn last year.
- The trade body blames stalled growth on unregulated prediction markets operating in all 50 states, including where sports betting is illegal.
- Kalshi derives about 80% of its volume from sports contracts, including an estimated $5.1bn from users aged 18–20 — below the legal betting age in most regulated states.
- AGA president Bill Miller says prediction markets mislead consumers by marketing sports wagers as investments rather than entertainment.
- The estimate covers preseason games, futures, the playoffs, and Super Bowl LXI in February 2027.
US.- US bettors are expected to legally wager $29.5bn on the 2026 NFL season, according to new estimates from the American Gaming Association (AGA), almost unchanged from last year’s $29.4bn handle. The trade body attributes the stagnation to the rapid growth of unregulated prediction markets such as Kalshi, which it accuses of diverting bettors, including minors, away from the legal, regulated market.
Prediction markets blamed for stalled growth
The estimate is based on national handle growth to date in 2026 applied to last year’s estimated NFL season total, together with football-specific reporting from selected states. The figure includes preseason games, futures booked as early as March, the playoffs and Super Bowl LXI in February 2027.
The AGA blamed the expected stagnation on prediction markets, which it said are offering sports-related contracts in all 50 states and Washington, DC. That includes the 40 jurisdictions where sports betting is legal and the 11 states that have not legalised the activity.
Bill Miller: Prediction markets ‘dangerously misleading’ consumers
Bill Miller, AGA president and CEO, said: “We’re excited for the NFL season to kick off, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favourite teams. Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalised sports betting has seen tremendous growth. But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called ‘prediction markets,’ the growth of legal handle has stalled.”
Sports bets account for about 80 per cent of volume on Kalshi, the AGA said, including an estimated $5.1bn from users aged 18 to 20, below the legal sports betting age in 35 of the 40 jurisdictions where sports betting is legal.
Miller said: “These ‘prediction market’ platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment. Kalshi and other ‘prediction markets’ say they don’t need to follow state- and tribal- regulated sports betting laws or pay state gaming taxes. Their defiance means consumers, including teenagers and freshmen, are placing bets without the protections, oversight, and accountability that the legal market provides.”
