Wynn Al Marjan could exceed US$1.66bn GGR forecast, analyst says
Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino compares the planned UAE resort with Singapore’s profitable casino market.
Key takeaways:
- Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino believes Wynn Al Marjan Island could outperform Wynn Resorts’ projected annual GGR of up to US$1.66bn.
- Supino points to the UAE’s luxury tourism market, international accessibility and potentially limited casino competition as key advantages.
- He compares the emerging UAE market with Singapore, where two integrated resorts have generated strong gaming returns.
- Wynn’s projected adjusted EBITDA, after management fees, is between US$390m and US$570m.
- Wynn Al Marjan Island is scheduled to open off the coast of Ras Al Khaimah in September 2027.
UAE.- Wynn Al Marjan Island could generate more gaming revenue than Wynn Resorts currently expects, according to Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino. He believes the planned UAE resort could benefit from the country’s luxury tourism market, accessibility to international visitors and limited expected casino competition. Wynn currently projects up to US$1.66bn in annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the property and adjusted EBITDA, after management fees, of US$390m to US$570m.
In his analysis, Supino points to the UAE’s luxury tourism market, accessibility to international visitors and prospect of limited competition as factors that could support stronger financial performance. He also compares the emerging market with Singapore, where two integrated resorts, Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa, have established a track record of high gaming profitability.
He describes Singapore as another wealthy market with a limited number of casino licences and strong tourism demand. The comparison suggests that Wynn’s UAE property could exceed its existing revenue targets. Industry projections indicate that the UAE could eventually have four or five casino resorts. Wolfe Research considers the prospect of limited competition an advantage for Wynn Al Marjan Island, potentially allowing it to capture a substantial share of the market’s gaming revenue.
Supino also cites figures from real estate consultancy Knight Frank, which estimates that luxury accommodation will account for 43 per cent of the UAE’s planned hotel room supply through 2030. According to figures referenced in the research, about one-third of the world’s population lives within a four-hour flight of the country.
The wider UAE casino market has been projected to generate US$3bn to US$5bn in annual GGR as additional properties enter the sector. Wynn’s projected annual GGR of up to US$1.66bn would represent a considerable share of that estimated market. Its eventual size will depend on the number of casino licences regulators issue and the performance of competing properties.
Wynn has scheduled the opening of the resort, which is being developed off the coast of Ras Al Khaimah, for September 2027.
