Macau GDP forecast revised amid US tariffs

The University of Macau has revised its forecast due to US president Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.

Macau.- The University of Macau (UM) has lowered its growth forecast for Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) for this year from 7.7 per cent to 6.8 per cent. Analysts said the adjustment reflects increased global economic uncertainty following US president Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.

The report says: “The US government’s tariff measures target countries around the world, but many of its trade policies target China. In addition, mainland China is experiencing a slowdown in growth due to structural adjustments, and how it responds to this will have a significant bearing on its economic growth in the near future. Mainland China is the main market for Macau’s exports of services and its economy will have a direct impact on Macau’s economic growth.”

The report predicts that exports of services will grow by 6.8 per cent and private consumption expenditure by 3.8 per cent. It anticipates a CPI inflation rate of 0.7 per cent and an unemployment rate of 1.7 per cent.

In 2024, Macau’s GDP rose by 8.8 per cent year-on-year to MOP403.31bn (US$50.35bn) in 2024. That represents 86.4 per cent of 2019 levels, before the Covid-19 pandemic. Exports of services increased by 9.2 per cent year-on-year as visitor arrivals rose by 23.8  per cent. Exports of gaming services rose by 21.8 per cent; however, exports of other tourism services fell by 6.1 per cent due to a high comparison base in 2023.

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