Seaport Research Partners predicts dip in Macau GGR for June
Analysts predict that GGR could fall by 13.7 per cent sequentially.
Macau.- Seaport Research Partners has forecast that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) could fall by 13.7 per cent sequentially in June. That would be slightly worse than the average historical monthly decline. Analysts expect the figure to be up by 3.4 per cent year-on-year but note that the UEFA Euro Cup could have had a negative impact on GGR during June last year.
Vitaly Umansky said that although GGR has seen improvements in previous months, it relies on a rebound in consumer confidence in China and the base mass segment. Umansky noted that there will be several large concerts in June and the first two days of the month saw the Dragon Boat Festival Holiday.
Umansky added that while the current estimate is conservative, GGR might drop if the typhoon season disrupts travel to Macau.
Seaport expects GGR to grow by 4 per cent in 2025, with the second half of the year likely to outperform the first. Growth is expected to be driven by increased marketing from casino operators and improvements in consumer sentiment, prompted by government stimulus in China.
Seaport estimates that mass GGR is at 114 per cent of 2019 levels while VIP is at about 26 per cent. Premium mass is up by 47 per cent compared to pre-Covid-19 levels and the bass mass segment is still 17 per cent below where it was in 2019.
The weakest recovery is among overnight visitors, which Umansky calls “destination-based mass.” This group is operating at less than 70 per cent of pre-pandemic levels and is seen as the key to any signficant growth.
Macau sees best monthly GGR since Covid-19
The forecast comes after the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported that GGR in May was MOP21.19bn (US$2.62bn). That’s an increase of 1.7 per cent when compared to May 2024 and 12.4 month-on-month. It was the city’s best monthly performance post-Covid-19.
The rise in revenue was mainly attributed to China’s five-day Labour Day holiday period, which brought 850,034 visitors to Macau, an increase of 40.6 per cent in year-on-year terms. During the holiday period, GGR was MOP5.1bn (US$633m), averaging MOP1.02bn (US$127m) per day, more than 90 per cent of pre-pandemic levels.
Cumulatively, Macau’s GGR for the first five months of 2025 was MOP97.7bn (US$12.1bn), up 1.7 per cent year-on-year. The figure was 77 per cent of the same period of 2019 (MOP125.6bn) (US$5.5bn).
