Seaport forecasts 7-9% decline in Macau GGR for July as World Cup impact continues
The brokerage predicts a rebound in August.
Macau.- Seaport Research Partners has forecast that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) could decrease by between 7 and 9 per cent year-on-year in July. It noted that the FIFA World Cup had diverted player activity and visitation, contributing to a weaker-than-expected June, with Macau’s GGR down 12.1 per cent year-on-year to MOP18.55bn (US$2.29bn).
Analyst Vitaly Umansky also suggested that concerns surrounding money flows may be limiting some player activity. Seaport estimates average daily GGR of MOP658m (US$81.5m) in July, up 6 per cent month-on-month but equivalent to only 83 per cent of July 2019 levels.
He expects the market to return to annual growth in August, forecasting an increase of around 5 per cent year-on-year as the impact of the World Cup fades. The analyst anticipates third quarter GGR growth of around 2 per cent, followed by a 4 per cent increase in the last three-month period of 2026.
“While there are concerns around the near-term sustainability of GGR growth and the Chinese economy (along with geopolitical risks), gaming valuations (in particular those with Macau exposure) remain largely undemanding, contributing to a continued positive risk/reward positioning for most operators,” Umansky said in a note to investors.
With 104 matches, the expanded 48-team FIFA World Cup is having a greater impact on Macau’s gaming industry than previous tournaments. Citi analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau also said they expect it to continue to divert part of consumers’ gaming budgets, maintaining pressure on casino revenues during the first three weeks of July.
