Analysts at Fitch Ratings believe that Macau will regain its position in the long run.
Macau.- Colin Mansfield, the sector head for US gaming, lodging and leisure at Fitch Ratings, has said that he expects Macau to remain the largest gaming market in the world and not to lose material share to other Asia Pacific thanks to the competitive advantages of proximity to mainland China and its size, with more than 40 casinos.
He cited the recovery of gambling markets in the US, Canada and Singapore, noting that once people were allowed to travel without restrictions, demand for gambling increased.
He told Macau Business: “Forecasting Macau is extremely challenging because we just don’t know when the demand will snap back, as it is mainly dependent on visitation […] we’re modelling gross gaming revenue to be about 70 per cent of 2019 levels by 2024, and 90 per cent by 2025. Obviously quite conservative but it’s very difficult to predict when visitation will snap back.”
As for Macau’s gaming concession tender he said: “Gaming operators pandemic business planning, defence posturing, cash flow management. It’s all happening as the operators have to think about the next round of concessions, which in itself is one of the most material, economic, decisions and exercises that these companies will probably have to go through.
“On top of that, they had to figure out how to stop the bleeding in a zero-revenue environment with a global pandemic going on”.
Macau aims to have the results of its casino licence retender ready in time to issue new licences by the end of the year.