Macau visitor numbers to improve in Q3, analysts say

Analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that visitor numbers will reach 80 to 85 per cent of 2019 levels.

Macau.- Analysis by Deutsche Bank suggests that the number of visitors to Macau during the third quarter of the year will be 15 to 20 per cent below the levels observed in 2019. That would be a sequential increase.

They said that while mass gaming spending per visitor on slots and table games was higher than 2019 during the first half of 2023, there are signs of deceleration. This trend mirrors the recovery seen in the United States, where dedicated gaming enthusiasts were the first to return, followed by a broader mass customer base.

Analysts Carlo Santarelli, Steven Pizzella, and Alfonso Straffon anticipate a further decline in mass gaming spending per visitor. This is particularly expected as the group and package tour segment, currently more than 80 per cent below 2019 levels, expands with increasing programming schedules.

The report by Deutsche Bank also highlights a shift in focus within Macau’s gaming industry toward mass hold percentages. Historically associated with the VIP segment, “hold percentages” and “luck” are now garnering attention in the mass gaming sector, which has yet to reach pre-2019 levels, impacting overall earnings.

One contributing factor to variations in reported revenue is the different approaches operators take in reporting gaming metrics. Some exclude “free play,” while others include it. The inclusion of free play can inflate the total amount wagered without generating cash revenue, thereby influencing mass hold percentages.

See also: Macau visitor arrivals up 24.5% in July