Jefferies sees Macau GGR weakness extending into November
The brokerage expects gaming revenue to recover in December, while VIP growth is forecast to offset part of the weakness in the mass-market segment in 2026.
Key takeaways:
- Jefferies forecasts a 7 per cent year-on-year decline in Macau’s GGR in October and continued weakness in November before a recovery in December.
- It projects full-year GGR of MOP252bn (US$31bn) in 2026, up 1.7 per cent.
Macau.- Jefferies expects Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) to remain under pressure in October and November. In a report published on October 13, analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei forecast a 7 per cent year-on-year decline in October and continued weakness into November before a recovery in December.
The brokerage expects Macau’s full-year 2026 GGR to reach MOP252bn (US$31bn). That would represent growth of 1.7 per cent, below the market expectation of around 3 per cent. Jefferies forecasts that mass-market GGR will end the year down by 0.5 per cent while VIP revenue will be up by 7.6 per cent.
Earlier this week, CLSA forecast that Macau’s casino operators will report an 11 per cent year-on-year decline in third-quarter EBITDA to US$1.84bn as weaker gross gaming revenue and higher operating costs weigh on profitability. CLSA forecasts third-quarter GGR at MOP60.2bn (US$7.45bn), which would represent a 3.8 per cent decrease compared to the same period last year.
Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai has said that Macau will maintain its 2026 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast of MOP236bn (US$29.2bn) for now, despite four consecutive months of year-on-year declines. He said the government would assess October’s revenue before considering any change to the annual target, with authorities monitoring whether increased visitor arrivals during China’s Golden Week holiday translated into stronger casino spending.
