Macau casinos face 11% EBITDA decline as costs rise, CLSA says

Higher commissions and operating expenses are expected to offset support from above-normal VIP win rates.

Macau.- Macau’s casino operators are expected to report an 11 per cent year-on-year decline in third-quarter EBITDA to US$1.84bn, as weaker gross gaming revenue and higher operating costs weigh on profitability. That’s according to the brokerage CLSA.

The outlook highlights the difficulty of converting visitor growth into gaming revenue while higher commissions add pressure to margins. CLSA forecasts third-quarter GGR at MOP60.2bn (US$7.45bn), which would represent a 3.8 per cent decrease compared to the same period last year. Operators’ commissions and rebates are expected to reach US$1.54bn, up from US$1.44bn a year earlier and reaching 20.7 per cent of GGR compared to 18.6 per cent in the third quarter of 2025.

CLSA said operating expenses remain under pressure, with Sands China expected to show a 12 per cent year-on-year increase due to changes in its player reinvestment strategy.

Looking ahead, CLSA maintains a neutral outlook for the next six months, forecasting GGR to drop around 1 per cent in the fourth quarter and to grow 2 per cent in 2027.