Macau maintains gaming revenue forecast as gaming tax climbs 5.6% in year to date
October’s results will be key to assessing whether Macau can meet its 2026 GGR target.
Key takeaways:
- Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said the government will assess October’s gaming revenue before considering any revision to Macau’s 2026 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast of MOP236bn (US$29.2bn).
- GGR reached MOP181.341bn (US$20.95bn) in the first nine months, up 3.7 per cent year-on-year. That means the next three months would need to generate at least MOP48.9bn (US$6bn) to meet the forecast.
- Macau collected MOP74.56bn (US$9.22bn) in casino taxes in the first nine months of the year, up 5.9 per cent compared with January-September 2025. Gaming taxes accounted for 84.1 per cent of government revenue.
Macau.- Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai has confirmed that Macau will maintain its 2026 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast of MOP236bn (US$29.2bn) for now, despite four consecutive months of year-on-year declines. He said the government would assess October’s revenue before considering any change to its annual target, with authorities monitoring whether increased visitor arrivals during China’s Golden Week holiday translate into stronger casino spending.
Cumulatively, Macau’s GGR for the first nine months of 2026 was MOP181.341bn (US$20.95bn), up 3.7 per cent year-on-year but 15.1 per cent below the MOP220.297bn (US$27.30bn) recorded in the corresponding period of 2019. To meet the current full-year forecast, GGR would need to total MOP48.9bn (US$6bn) in the final three months, equivalent to an average of MOP16.3bn per month.
GGR has been down year-on-year since since June, when GGR was down 12.1 per cent year-on-year. Revenue was down by 8.4 per cent in July and 1.2 per cent in both August and September.
Macau gaming tax up 5.9 per cent in first nine months of 2025
The Financial Services Bureau has reported that Macau collected MOP74.56bn (US$9.22bn) in casino taxes in the first nine months of the year. The figure was up 5.9 per cent compared with the January-September period of 2025. Gaming taxes accounted for 84.1 per cent of government revenue.
Under the 10-year concessions that came into effect on January 1, 2023, casinos pay 40 per cent on GGR. The monthly tax receipts for September amounted to MOP8.39bn (US$1.04bn), down 1.6 per cent year-on-year, but up 7.4 per cent compared with August. The Macau government’s 2026 fiscal budget plan estimated that income from taxes on the gaming sector would reach MOP92.53bn (US$11.52bn) this year.
