Macau remains on track to meet 2026 gaming revenue target, CreditSights says
The research firm says Macau needs average monthly gross gaming revenue of MOP16.3bn in the fourth quarter to reach its annual target.
Key takeaways:
- CreditSights expects Macau to remain on course to meet its 2026 casino GGR target of MOP236bn (US$29.2bn).
- Macau generated MOP187.12bn in GGR during the first nine months of 2026, up 3.2% year-on-year.
- The market achieved 79 per cent of its full-year gaming revenue target by the end of September.
- Macau needs average monthly GGR of MOP16.3bn in the fourth quarter to reach the annual forecast.
Macau.- Macau remains on course to meet the government’s 2026 casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) target of MOP236bn (US$29.2bn), despite several consecutive months of year-on-year declines, CreditSights has said.
In a recent report, analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey said it “may be too early to conclude that the soft data prints in recent months are more structural than cyclical”. Macau generated nearly US$21bn in GGR during the first nine months of 2026, up 3.2 per cent year-on-year and equivalent to 79 per cent of the full-year target.
To reach the annual forecast, the market needs to generate an average of MOP16.3bn per month during the fourth quarter. CreditSights noted that the average monthly GGR for the first nine months stood at approximately MOP20.8bn, above the MOP19.7bn average implied by the annual target.
The analysts attributed some of the recent weakness to temporary factors, noting that June and July were affected by the FIFA World Cup football tournament. GGR also declined by approximately 1 per cent year-on-year in both August and September, which CreditSights described as relatively marginal. September marked the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year decline.
October is expected to provide a clearer picture of the market’s trajectory. CreditSights highlighted visitor volumes during the Golden Week holiday period as a potential driver of stronger gaming revenue.
Earlier this month, chief executive Sam Hou Fai confirmed that Macau will maintain its 2026 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast of MOP236bn (US$29.2bn) for now, despite four consecutive months of year-on-year declines. He said the government would assess October’s revenue before considering any change to its annual target, with authorities monitoring whether increased visitor arrivals during China’s Golden Week holiday translate into stronger casino spending.
