Macau casino EBITDA up 5% in Q1, analysts say
Morgan Stanley expects first-quarter EBITDA to be just under US$1.95bn.
Macau.- Analysts at Morgan Stanley expect the six gaming operators in Macau to report US$1.95bn in industry corporate earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for the first quarter of 2024. That would represent a 5 per cent rise from the previous quarter (US$1.85bn) and 81 per cent of 2019 levels.
Analysts Praveen Choudhary, Gareth Leung, and Stephen Grambling noted that such EBITDA growth would be below first-quarter gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth of six per cent quarter-on-quarter.
Macau’s GGR for March was MOP19.50bn (US$2.42bn), an increase of 5.5 per cent month-on-month and 53.1 per cent when compared to March 2023. Cumulatively, Macau’s GGR for the first three months of 2024 was MOP$57.3bn (US$7.11bn), up 65.5 per cent year-on-year and implying a full-year run rate of around MOP$229.2bn (US$28.4bn).
Analysts predicted that the operating leverage benefits for this quarter will be smaller due to wage increases and some companies increasing promotions to attract customers. They also believe that grind mass could have recovered better this quarter. They expect industry property EBITDA figure could increase 6 per cent sequentially to around US$2.10bn.
In terms of individual operators, Morgan Stanley expects MGM China and Wynn Macau to beat consensus expectations. SJM Holdings is predicted to benefit from better EBITDA growth driven by Grand Lisboa Palace.
